Euro 2024: England Enter as Favorites
Euro 2024 Outright Predictions & Odds
Italy Face Uphill Battle to Become Repeat Champions
Euro 2024 kicks off next Friday, as hosts Germany take on Scotland in the tournament opener. Germany are, unsurprisingly, one of the tournament favorites, but England come in with the shortest odds to become champions.
The Three Lions have never won the European Championship and their status as favorites highlights just how wide open the field is. That’s where we’ll come in with some Euro 2024 outright predictions as we take a preliminary look at the odds.
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Expert Pick: Subscribe below to get our Premium Insights!Questions About England’s Defense
England made the Euro 2020 Final under Gareth Southgate and they reached the Quarter-Finals of the 2022 World Cup. Their attacking talent is undeniable, with European Golden Shoe winner Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden.
Plus, they also have Champions League winner Jude Bellingham ready to provide goals from midfield.
Declan Rice is also an incredibly important player for the Three Lions. However, there are certainly questions about England’s defense.
Harry Maguire and John Stones haven’t played much lately and Luke Shaw faces a late fitness test for the group opener. They should easily advance from their group but could be vulnerable when they face a strong side later on.
England are +300 favorites to lift the trophy but the first of our Euro 2024 outright predictions is that it won’t be England celebrating on July 14th.
France Have No Glaring Weaknesses
France are just behind England on the odds board, at +400 to win Euro 2024. Les Bleus have already reached three major finals under Didier Deschamps and another could certainly be on the cards.
France have, potentially, the most impactful player in the tournament in Kylian Mbappe, who just signed with Real Madrid.
France don’t have any glaring weaknesses and they’re a team built for major tournaments. Les Bleus went unbeaten in eight UEFA Euro Qualifiers games and we wouldn’t be surprised if they are crowned champions in July.
Hosts Germany have the benefit of home field advantage but their recent results have been rather shaky. In the last year alone, Germany have lost to Poland, Colombia, Japan, Turkey and Austria. Die Mannschaft have a ton of talent but they haven’t shown any kind of consistency to suggest they can win four knockout stage games in a row.
Granted, Germany didn’t have to play in qualifiers, so they could turn it on when the lights are brightest. They’ll need big efforts from Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rudiger at the back, while Niclas Fullkrug is a goalscoring threat to keep an eye on.
Iberian Neighbors Looking to Make Deep Runs
Iberian neighbors Portugal and Spain are next up on the odds board, at +800 apiece. We fully expect Portugal to finish in first place in the Group F Euro 2024 standings.
They’re in a relatively weak group, with Turkey, Czechia and Georgia. Cristiano Ronaldo may be 39 but he’s expected to start up top under Roberto Martinez.
Ronaldo is certainly a candidate for the Golden Boot given Portugal’s group stage opponents. Otherwise, Portugal have an incredibly strong side with a pleasing balance.
Joao Palhinha is Portugal’s midfield destroyer, while attacking midfielder Bruno Fernandes could easily lead the tournament in assists.
Portugal have high level players all over the pitch and we wouldn’t be shocked to see a rematch of the Euro 2016 Final, where Portugal took down France.
Spain also have one of the strongest squads in the tournament and they reached the Semifinals at Euro 2020. Spain lost on penalties to eventual champions Italy but got their revenge last year.
La Furia Roja defeated Italy in the UEFA Nations League Semis and took down Croatia in the Final in penalties to grab their first honor under Luis de la Fuente.
Adding Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal to a possession-based Spain team makes them much more dynamic. Rodri will set the tone in midfield, while Spain need their backline to step up to have a chance to win the tournament.
Dark Horses
Defending champions Italy (+1400) have the misfortune of being in a group with Croatia and Spain. Luckily for the Azzurri, they open up with Albania and can build some momentum heading into the clash vs Spain.
Italy don’t appear to be a cohesive unit heading into Euro 2024 and Luciano Spalletti has a tall task ahead of him. They went just 4-2-2 in qualifiers and we back Italy to get out of their group but not to repeat as champions.
Belgium (+1600) have a Golden Boot candidate, in Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne is one of the world’s best playmakers. There are some interesting talents around Lukaku as well, like Leandro Trossard and Jeremy Doku.
However, Belgium’s backline is a big question mark heading into the Euros and they could have a hard time vs. the continent’s best sides. Still, they haven’t lost since crashing out of the 2022 FIFA World Cup early.
Ronald Koeman made some controversial calls, leaving out Ian Maatsen, Calvin Stengs and Joshua Zirkzee from his Netherlands squad.
The Netherlands are +1600 dark horses but they’ve lost their last six games vs. top 20 teams in the FIFA World Ranking while conceding two goals in each one. The Netherlands finished behind France in the UEFA Euro standings in qualifiers and that should be the case in Group D too.
Intriguing Longshots
- Croatia (+4000) have often outperformed expectations under Zlatko Dalic and we refuse to discount the possibility they’ll make a deep run. Especially in what could be Luka Modric’s last ride with the national team.
- Turkey (+5000) have a talented team and they’re in a favorable group. However, we think they’ll struggle to advance past the Round of 16.
- Austria (+8000) could surprise quite a few people at Euro 2024. Ralf Rangnick is 14-3-5 as Austria’s manager and Christoph Baumgartner has scored in four straight games. Don’t be shocked if they knock out one of the tournament favorites.
- Ukraine (+10000) managed to take points off of both Italy and England in qualifiers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the tournament and they’re well-balanced. One of our Euro 2024 outright predictions is that they’ll win Group E over Belgium.
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