Neighbors France, Belgium Meet in Knockout Stage
France vs Belgium Euro Odds: Spot in Quarter-Finals on the Line
Mbappe Returns From Broken Nose
In the highest-profile match of the Euro 2024 round of 16, France take on Belgium on Monday. Both sides were expected to win their groups but were disappointing in the group stage. France (1-2-0) didn’t score a single goal from open play that wasn’t an own goal. Meanwhile, Belgium (1-1-1) lost to Slovakia and drew against Ukraine. Regardless, both teams are talented and are still capable of going on runs.
France’s Kylian Mbappe missed France’s second match with a broken nose but returned and scored a penalty in the 1-1 draw against Poland. He’ll be key on Monday once again and we’ll check out the France vs Belgium Euro odds ahead of the match.
France vs Belgium
Date & Time: Monday, July 1st, 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Merkur Spiel-Arena, Dusseldorf, Germany
France vs Belgium Head-to-Head
All-time, Belgium have more wins in this fixture and hold a 30-19-26 record. However, France have been dominant over the last 40 years, with just two losses in 13 meetings. France and Belgium last met in the 2021 UEFA Nations League Semifinal, which France won 3-2.
Les Bleus also took down Belgium in the 2018 World Cup Semifinal, as Samuel Umtiti’s header was the game’s only goal. Their only other meeting at the Euros was in 1984, as France defeated Belgium 5-0.
France Struggling to Convert Chances
France got off 48 shots in the group stage and scored just two goals. One of them was an own goal and the other was a Kylian Mbappe penalty. Kylian Mbappe’s stats show his goal was his first career goal in the European Championships. France beat Austria 1-0, drew 0-0 with the Netherlands and 1-1 against Poland to finish in second place in Group D. Still, they sit at +500 soccer odds to win the Euros for the first time since 2000.
Didier Deschamps and the France rely heavily on Mbappe and he’ll need to be stellar in the knockout stage if they’re to win. Mbappe played against Poland on Monday with a protective mask but it didn’t seem to impede him. After he missed a few chances in the second group game, Deschamps started Antoine Griezmann on the bench against Poland.
It’s not all bad for France, their non-penalty expected goals in the group stage were 4.9. While teams like England have struggled to create chances, France have struggled to convert them. We’d be surprised if Olivier Giroud doesn’t play a role here, as a target man who’s also an excellent finisher could be what France need.
N’Golo Kante, Mike Maignan and William Saliba have been standouts for a team that conceded only once in the group stage. Even if France aren’t converting chances, they’ll always have a chance to advance given their superb defense.
| Key Stats | France | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 3 | 3 |
| Won | 1 | 1 |
| Draw | 2 | 1 |
| Lost | 0 | 1 |
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
| Total Attempts | 49 | 46 |
| Passing Accuracy (%) | 89.7 | 87.3 |
| Attacks | 164 | 174 |
| Balls Recovered | 124 | 102 |
| Saves | 9 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 5 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
Belgium Booed off the Pitch
Belgium, like France, had 48 shots in the group stage and just two goals. Striker Romelu Lukaku, a Golden Boot candidate heading into the tournament, failed to score despite shooting 10 times. Lukaku, who led UEFA Euro qualifiers with 14 goals, did provide an assist and commands a lot of attention from defenses.
The Red Devils lost 1-0 to Slovakia in their opening match despite coming in as -205 favorites. Belgium followed it up with a 2-0 win over Romania and a scoreless draw against Ukraine. That was good enough for second place in Group E but they haven’t looked like a contender thus far.
Belgium were booed off the pitch by their fans after the Ukraine match and captain Kevin De Bruyne ordered his players not to greet the fans and leave the pitch. De Bruyne has been creating chances at an incredible rate (8.33 shot creating actions per game) however Belgium’s attackers haven’t been as sharp as desired.
Jeremy Doku has looked dangerous on the left wing but he’s still a raw player whose final product is subpar. It is somewhat surprising Domenico Tedesco hasn’t given Lois Openda more playing time. The RB Leipzig striker scored 24 Bundesliga goals in the 2023-24 season and is a complete forward.
France vs Belgium Match Analysis & Odds
France, who have scored just two goals in their last four games, are -110 favorites to win this match in extra time. The France vs Belgium Euro odds also list Belgium as +360 underdogs and a draw at +230. Belgium’s defense hasn’t been properly tested yet with the caliber of players that France have.
Belgium’s Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen haven’t played together much and it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up against Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele. The only goal France conceded in the group stage was by Dayot Upamecano’s individual error, which led to a penalty. Upamecano can be error-prone at times but otherwise this French backline isn’t going to give away anything easily.
Currently, the France vs Belgium Euro odds list both France -0.5 and Belgium +0.5 at -110 odds. With the way both teams have struggled to put the ball in the back of the net, under 2, 2.5 goals are priced at -122. France have already managed to shut out Austria and the Netherlands, who averaged three and two goals in their other matches, respectively.
UEFA Euro brackets show that the winner of this match will take on the winner of Portugal vs Slovenia in the Quarter-Finals.
| Team | Handicap |
|---|---|
| France | -½ -122 |
| Belgium | +½ -102 |
