No More Margin for Error for Portugal
Euro 2024 Round of 16: Portugal vs Slovenia Soccer Odds
Slovenia Drew All Three Group Stage Games
On Wednesday, Portugal suffered the biggest upset loss in European Championship history. Portugal, who had already clinched Group F, fell 2-0 to Georgia and they take on Slovenia in the Euro 2024 round of 16 on Monday. Slovenia drew all three group stage matches and finished in third place in Group C.
Slovenia recently beat Portugal 2-0 in a March friendly and they’ll look to pull off another upset here. Ahead of Monday’s game, we’ll check out the Portugal vs Slovenia soccer odds.
Portugal vs Slovenia
Records: Portugal (2-1-0), Slovenia (0-3-0)
Date & Time: Monday, July 1, 3:00 p.m. ET
Location: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt, Germany
Stream: Fox Sports
Portugal vs Slovenia Head-to-Head
This is only the second-ever opportunity to bet on the Portugal vs Slovenia soccer odds. Slovenia hosted Portugal in a friendly for the first time back in March. Slovenia midfielders Timi Elsnik and Adam Gnezda Cerin scored in Slovenia’s surprising 2-0 victory.
Portugal Sent Warning by Georgia
With 2-1 and 3-0 wins over Czech Republic (Czechia) and Turkey, Portugal clinched first place in Group F with a game to spare. It took a late comeback for Portugal to take down Czechia but they easily defeated Turkey. Ahead of their third UEFA Euro game, against Georgia, coach Roberto Martinez made eight changes.
Two individual errors from center back Antonio Silva led Georgia to score twice and pull off the biggest upset in Euros history. Cristiano Ronaldo started all three matches for Portugal but failed to score a group stage goal for the first time in 10 major international tournaments. Ronaldo did provide an assist for Bruno Fernandes in the win over Turkey but he hasn’t scored a non-penalty goal in 10 major tournament games.
That’s not to say he’s been bad, as international soccer’s all-time leading scorer is still getting into great positions. Expect Martinez to continue to start Ronaldo and revert to the lineup that destroyed Turkey. Rafael Leao was suspended for the third group stage match and his return will give Portugal more of a threat on the wings.
Fernandes and Bernardo Silva are world-class at creating chances and Portugal won’t dwell on Wednesday’s loss too long. The backline that played on Wednesday will look completely different on Monday, as Pepe, Ruben Dias, Joao Cancelo and Nuno Mendes should all return to the starting lineup. Heading into the knockout stage, the soccer betting odds list Portugal at a +650 price to win Euro 2024.
| Key Stats | PortugaL | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 3 | 3 |
| Won | 2 | 0 |
| Draw | 0 | 3 |
| Lost | 1 | 0 |
| Goals | 5 | 2 |
| Total Attempts | 54 | 25 |
| Passing Accuracy (%) | 90 | 78.7 |
| Attacks | 213 | 86 |
| Balls Recovered | 126 | 119 |
| Saves | 4 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 7 | 6 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
Slovenia Unbeaten in 2024
The Slovenians are unbeaten in 2024, with a 3-5-0 record. So far, they’ve beaten Portugal and the USA and managed draws against Serbia, Denmark, and England in the group stage. However, Tuesday’s scoreless draw versus England was the first time in 15 matches Slovenia failed to score. Still, Matjaz Kek has done an excellent job coaching this Slovenia side to their first-ever knockout stage appearance in a major tournament.
They were underdogs for all three group stage games and one of the most surprising soccer picks. Pragmatic, industrious, and with an excellent goalkeeper and striker, Slovenia can make some noise in the knockout stage.
Atletico Madrid goalkeeper Jan Oblak has been up to the challenge in his first-ever major tournament. While striker Benjamin Sesko hasn’t scored, he’s been keeping defenses on their toes.
His strike partner Andraz Sporar has been hard-working even if he hasn’t found the net either. Defenders Jaka Bijol and Erik Janza have also been standouts but Janza is out suspended for this match. Jure Balkovec is in line to make his first start of the tournament in Janza’s place.
Portugal vs Slovenia Match Analysis & Odds
Slovenia are ranked in 57th place in the FIFA World Rankings, while Portugal are sixth. Slovenia won’t be intimidated by their opponents, especially given their 2-0 win over Portugal in March. However, none of Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leao, Ruben Dias, and Bruno Fernandes started that match. Given Martinez will name his strongest squad here, Portugal are -270 favorites to win in normal time.
The Selecao also show -600 odds to qualify for the Quarter-Finals for the fourth time in the last five Euros. Slovenia have never played a knockout stage match in a major tournament and the occasion could produce some nerves even if they believe they can beat Portugal again. Still, they’re +800 underdogs in 90 minutes and are priced at +400 overall Portugal vs Slovenia soccer odds to go through.
Portugal over 1.5 goals stands at -157 odds even though Slovenia have conceded two goals in only one of their last nine games. Under 2.5 goals come in at -122 Portugal vs Slovenia soccer odds but Slovenia will likely be pinned back in their half for the majority of the match. Finally, a draw is at +370 odds and wouldn’t be a surprise given Slovenia have managed to draw their last four games, in all competitions.
| Team | Handicap |
|---|---|
| Portugal | -1, -1.5, -108 |
| Slovenia | +1, +1.5, -112 |
