Spain vs Italy in Group Stage Blockbuster
Group B: Spain vs Italy Euro Odds, Preview
Two Contenders Meet in Group Stage
In a match that is more fit for a Final, Spain take on defending champions Italy on Thursday in the Euro 2024 Group Stage. Spain picked up an impressive 3-0 victory over Croatia in their opener. Meanwhile, Italy came back from an early mistake to defeat Albania 2-1. We’ll cover the Spain vs Italy Euro odds, with first place in the Group B UEFA Euro standings on the line. This marks the fifth Euro in a row in which Spain and Italy will face off and this is the most-anticipated match of the Group Stage.
Spain vs Italy
Date & Time: Thursday, June 20th, 3:00 p.m. ET
Location: Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Head-to-Head
When these teams met in the Euro 2020 Semifinals, the match finished 1-1 as Federico Chiesa scored for Italy and Alvaro Morata answered for Spain. The Spain vs Italy Euro odds priced a draw at +210. After two scoreless extra time periods, Italy managed to take down Spain in penalties.
Since then, these teams have met in the Nations League Semifinals twice. Spain defeated Italy 2-1 on both occasions and La Roja are unbeaten in the last five 90-minute meetings. In seven previous UEFA Euro games between Spain and Italy, four have finished in draws. Spain’s lone 90-minute victory was in the Euro 2012 Final, while Italy have defeated Spain twice in normal time.
Spain Possession Streak Ends Despite 3-0 Win
In 136 competitive matches since the Spain national football team won 1-0 in the Euro 2008 Final vs Germany despite keeping 46 percent possession, Spain managed to outpossess their opponents. That was until Saturday’s 3-0 victory over Croatia, in which Spain had 46 percent possession of the ball. The age of tiki-taka might be over but Spain look like a more effective team than they have in quite some time.
Spain were more direct and clinical than we’ve seen them in quite some time vs. Croatia. Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal scored in the 3-0 rout. Meanwhile, winger Lamine Yamal became the youngest player to appear and assist a goal at the Euros. The 16-year old can run for days and his cross for Carvajal was superb. With Yamal and Nico Williams, Spain have two wingers who can take players on and provide a different dimension.
With Rodri, Fabian Ruiz and Pedri in midfield, Spain are balanced even if possession isn’t their first priority. While questions still remain about the center back pairing of Robin Le Normand and Nacho, Spain look like a team that can make a deep run.
Italy Pull Off Comeback
Italy conceded the quickest goal in the history of the European Championships on Saturday vs. Albania. Albania’s Nedim Bajrami pounced on Federico Dimarco’s errant throw in and managed to fire past Italy keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. When Italy score first, they have frequently retreated into a shell. Because they conceded first, Italy had to play aggressively and they looked excellent for the remainder of the first half.
The Azzurri were passing circles around Albania and they equalized 11 minutes in, as Lorenzo Pellegrini found Alessandro Bastoni. Nicolo Barella gave Italy the lead on a brilliant first time striker and the Azzurri hung on for 75 minutes to win 2-1. This is an inexperienced Italy team compared to the Euro 2020 side but they looked excellent at times.
Riccardo Calafiori stepped into center back and he looked confident on the ball. It might be difficult for Italy to repeat as champions but they can cause problems for every team at this tournament. Donnarumma was the Player of the Tournament at Euro 2020, while Barella, Chiesa and Jorginho provide just enough experience for Italy. Striker Gianluca Scamacca may have to step up if the Azzurri are to go far.
Match Analysis & Odds
Spain are the favorites to win Group B, especially after their emphatic win over Croatia. The Spain vs Italy Euro odds currently price La Roja as +115 favorites for this match. This will be a much bigger test for both teams and it’s been a draw heavy fixture when they meet in the Euros. Here, a draw comes in at +225. Meanwhile, defending champions Italy are +260 underdogs.
Neither of Italy’s goals on Saturday came from their front line. Their lack of a proven international striker is a concern, while Morata ranks fourth all-time for Spain in goals. Spain have beaten Italy in two straight competitive meetings and they are the reigning UEFA Nations League champions.
Both teams have scored in the last three meetings and over 2, 2.5 goals are priced at -140 odds. Spain pk, -0.5 is listed at -115 odds, while Italy pk, +0.5 is at +105. While we think Italy may be up against it if coach Luciano Spalletti sets up the same way defensively, he may adjust to a five-man backline to neutralize the threat of Spain’s wingers.
