Underwhelming England Face Slovakia in Round of 16

England Still Favorites to Win Euro 2024

After a largely unimpressive group stage performance, England are still favorites to win Euro 2024, at +350 odds. England haven’t been making the best use of their attacking talents, with just two goals in the group stage. 

Still, they finished in first place in Group C and will face Group E third-place side Slovakia on Sunday in the round of 16. Slovakia pulled off the biggest upset in tournament history (at the time) with a 1-0 victory over Belgium in their opener. We’ll run through the England vs Slovakia Euro odds as Slovakia will be thinking about another upset.

England vs Slovakia Head-to-Head

England last met Slovakia in World Cup qualifying matches in 2017 and 2016. In Slovakia, England picked up a 1-0 victory and the Three Lions also won the reverse fixture, 2-1. Slovakia are winless against England all-time, with a 0-1-5 record. These teams have only contested one previous UEFA Euro game against each other and that Euro 2016 group stage match finished 0-0.

England: Disjointed and Misfiring

The jeers for England manager Gareth Southgate are getting louder after England drew their final two group stage games and scored just one goal in those games. It is somewhat shocking that a team with so much attacking talent plays such a timid style. England, with the likes of Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham, and Cole Palmer scored only two goals in the group stage. 

To his credit, Southgate did end the Trent Alexander-Arnold starting experiment in midfield but England still look disjointed. Still tipped by many UEFA Euro brackets to make a deep run, England haven’t inspired any confidence so far. 

Yet, we saw Portugal win Euro 2016 after drawing all three of their group stage matches. England have time to improve and have a favorable draw in the round of 16. Left back Luke Shaw, who hasn’t played since February, is nearing a return and he should add more dynamism to England’s attacks. 

Foden left England camp after the 0-0 draw against Slovenia on Tuesday for the birth of his child but should be back before Sunday’s match. Foden hasn’t played at his best and there have been calls to replace him in the starting lineup for Anthony Gordon. 

Palmer was also England’s best player after coming on as a sub on Tuesday and it’s baffling he hasn’t played more thus far. Midfielder Kobbie Mainoo was also solid when he replaced Conor Gallagher and could come in as a starter.  Between selection headaches, players underperforming, players not understanding their tactical responsibilities, and more, we’d recommend being cautious when betting on England.

Slovakia Exceeding Expectations

Slovakia entered Euro 2024 ranked 48th in the world in the FIFA World Rankings. In their opening match, they took on Belgium, who are ranked third in the world. Slovakia’s Ivan Schranz scored the decisive goal in what was the biggest upset in Euros history based on rankings. That was until Georgia defeated Portugal 2-0 on Wednesday. 

Francesco Calzona’s team was +570 underdogs for the Belgium match. Taking Slovakia to win over Belgium was one of the best soccer picks for the group stage. Slovakia then lost 2-1 to Ukraine in their second match and drew 1-1 versus Romania on Wednesday. Slovakia are in the round of 16 at the Euros for just the second time in team history. 

The odds are stacked against them for this match and they’ve never reached the Quarter-Finals at a major tournament. Schranz led Slovakia with two goals in the group stage, while the midfield trio of Juraj Kucka, Stanislav Lobotka, and Ondrej Duda was key for Calzona. Milan Skriniar and David Hancko are also top-level defenders. 

Slovakia don’t typically score many goals against high-level opposition but they can remain competitive against most teams. They narrowly lost twice to Portugal in Euro qualifiers but were unbeaten otherwise. 

England vs Slovakia  Match Analysis & Odds

We expect another few changes to the England lineup ahead of this match. The Three Lions need to be more aggressive and ruthless when they take leads. On two occasions at Euro 2024, they’ve started to drop deep and be passive once they score. Slovakia won’t be afraid of their opponents but they are +850 underdogs to win in 90 minutes. England come in as -245 favorites but they’ve won only two of their last eight matches. 

The England vs Slovakia Euro odds list a draw at +330. Two of England’s four knockout stage games at Euro 2020 went to extra time, including the final, which they lost to Italy. One could argue this England team is even more talented than that side. Especially with the emergence of Jude Bellingham, who has been quiet ever since scoring England’s opening goal of the tournament. 

If England can get more link-up play from him and Harry Kane, they’ll be on the right path. England -1, -1.5 sits at -102 odds but we wouldn’t dream of taking that bet with the form they’ve been in. 

Meanwhile, Slovakia +1, +1.5 is priced at -122. Over 2, 2.5 goals show -118 England vs. Slovakia Euro odds but none of England’s three group stage matches had three or more goals scored. The winner of this match will take on the winner of Switzerland vs. Italy in the Quarter-Finals.

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