It’s Verstappen vs Norris in Formula 1’s 2024 Austrian GP Odds
Both Were Top Contenders in Spain; Same in Austria?
The first race of a Formula 1 triple-header gave viewers an exciting race in Barcelona. Max Verstappen’s win at the Spanish Grand Prix wasn’t easy as he had to fend off a charging Lando Norris all race after Norris took pole position.
This week, the grid heads to Red Bull’s home race in Austria, and the 2024 Austrian GP Odds point to another potential Norris-Verstappen fight.
Note: These odds are for the Grand Prix race and qualifying, not the sprint shootout and sprint race.
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2024 Austrian GP Odds: Race winner
Max Verstappen (-200)
The three-time defending F1 champion earned his seventh win of the season but, like his last two wins in Canada and Imola, it wasn’t easy. Red Bull’s car isn’t as dominant as it was in 2023 and McLaren has caught up.
Verstappen struggled in Monaco with curbs and an uneven track surface. Austria’s curbing is notoriously harsh and loud so he could be on par with the others this weekend.
Lando Norris (+285)
Norris once again proved the McLaren is just as good of an all-around car as the Red Bull in Barcelona and the next F1 race is another opportunity.
Austria may not have the same tire degradation as Spain but it should be enough to tip things in Norris’ favor. He’s had enough chances and now has the car to regularly fight for victories.
Charles Leclerc (+1800)
Ferrari struggled once again in Spain, although not to the degree they did in Canada. The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya did not suit their package with its majority of high-speed corners.
Austria similarly has just a couple of low-speed turns with more medium- to high-speed corners throughout the lap. Unless Ferrari makes massive changes to its package this week, Leclerc will likely see fewer F1 results like his win in Monaco.
Lewis Hamilton (+2200)
Hamilton’s first podium of the year made it 18 Formula 1 seasons in a row with at least one podium finish for his career, a stunning mark.
Mercedes’ front wing update is having the desired effect with an improvement in balance throughout the weekend. Hamilton’s never driven exceptionally well here, though, with just two career wins in 12 races.
2024 Austrian GP Odds: Pole position
Verstappen (-125)
It’s hard to believe but it’s been a month since Verstappen took pole position. He’s come incredibly close in Canada – where he set the same time as polesitter George Russell – and Spain, where he was 0.02 seconds behind Norris.
He’s always been good in qualifying in Austria and has four pole positions here, tied for his most at any circuit. This is where he should get back in front in qualifying.
Norris (+333)
Norris called his pole position in Spain a perfect lap. That’ll be hard to replicate around here, especially with Verstappen’s prowess at this circuit.
Leclerc (+900)
Leclerc is arguably the best qualifier on F1 rankings in the field. But the Ferrari will likely not be fast enough to overcome both Norris and Verstappen on Saturday here.
Carlos Sainz (+1200)
A similar story for Sainz, who had a rough final stint in Spain on his hard tires. Ferrari won’t be close enough on pace in this track format to provide Sainz a car to put on pole.
George Russell (+1200)
Russell’s fantastic charge around the outside in Turn 1 to open the Spanish Grand Prix was ultimately outdone by the Mercedes’ pace disadvantage.
He simply couldn’t keep up with Verstappen or Norris, especially on the hard tires. He’s a good qualifier and could be a surprise at the front this weekend.
Hamilton (+1200)
A win would be tough but Hamilton could surprise in qualifying. Austria is one of the shortest laps of the year and could be an equalizer among the top three teams.
He’s qualified on pole position three times here, most recently in 2020, and looked in better form in Spain.
Podium and points finishers
Oddsmakers like a podium of Verstappen (-600), Norris, (-350), and Leclerc (-105). But there are some drivers who could make the podium at longer F1 odds, including:
Hamilton (+250)
He could make it two in a row with another strong performance across the weekend. It’ll be tough considering how close the top teams are behind Verstappen but he made the strategy work very well in Spain.
Russell (+250)
If not for switching to the hard tire, Russell likely could’ve challenged Hamilton for a podium finish in Barcelona. Things could be better in Austria. Russell should be in the mix for a top-three result.
Oscar Piastri (+400)
Piastri had a rough go in Spain for his second consecutive disappointing finish following his second place in Monaco. The McLaren driver should be on for a better result here and that could include a podium.
Oddsmakers favor the following drivers to make the top 10:
- Verstappen (-1100)
- Norris (-1000)
- Leclerc (-900)
- Hamilton (-800)
- Russell (-800)
- Sergio Perez (-700)
- Piastri (-700)
- Sainz (-700)
- Fernando Alonso (-200)
- Pierre Gasly (-140)
- Esteban Ocon (-140)
Here’s who could break into that group:
- Nico Hulkenberg (+350)
Haas has traditionally performed well at this circuit, especially with Hulkenberg. He qualified fourth in the sprint shootout last year and finished sixth in the sprint race.
In last year’s Grand Prix, he qualified eighth but engine problems ended his race after 12 laps. He’s finished 11th in four of the last five Grand Prix. Look for him to finally break that streak here.
- Daniel Ricciardo (+225)
After a season-best eighth place in Canada, Ricciardo outperformed teammate Yuki Tsunoda for just the third time all year.
VCARB couldn’t sort out its new update package in Spain but could be in better shape with another week of analysis. Between that and his recent momentum, Ricciardo could surprise here.
2024 Austrian GP Odds: Predictions
The sprint format could provide extra excitement this weekend in Austria as the grid hits the second race of the triple-header.
We like Verstappen (-125) to take pole position but Norris (+285) to get the win and Piastri (+400) joins the two of them on the podium. Watch for Hulkenberg (+350) to earn his first points finish in two months with a top-10 result here.
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