Can Pittsburgh Sneak In a Series Win Over Atlanta?

Despite being nine games above .500, it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the Atlanta Braves. Not only are they eight games out of the NL East, but they’re just not hitting like they did last year.

Add in the fact that Ronald Acuna Jr. is out for the year, and the Braves don’t look like a team with the potential to win it all this year.

That said, there’s still a month before the MLB Trade Deadline. They’ll always have a chance as long as the Braves stay around ten games above .500.

Meanwhile, the Braves will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a three-game series over the weekend. Pittsburgh is 39-41 and still in contention for an NL Wild Card spot. They’ll have rookie pitcher Paul Skenes take the mound in the second game of the series. He’s already 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA this season.

However, while the Pirates figure to have a chance in Game 2, they’ll be underdogs in all three games, including tonight. Atlanta is -172 on the moneyline, with the total currently at 8.5. The Over is juiced to -122.

Check out our Pirates vs Braves series preview for this weekend’s pivotal series for the NL Wild Card.

Is Derek Shelton On The Hot Seat?

Although it’s looking like another season with a record below .500, manager Derek Shelton is probably not on the hot seat just yet. If things don’t improve in the second half of the season, manager Shelton could be let go.

But Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to be at that point yet.

If the MLB Playoff odds for the Pirates continue to trickle down, Pittsburgh might not have a choice.

Brian Anderson To The IL

The Atlanta Braves sent Brian Anderson to the MLB injured list earlier this week. With the move, they recalled infielder Luke Williams to take his spot.

Anderson wasn’t even injured. Instead, he has a bacterial infection.

Pirates vs Braves Series Preview For Game 1:

RL: Braves -1.5 (+116) ML: Braves -172, O/U: 8.5 -122/+102

The Pirates will pitch lefty Martin Perez for the series’ first game. The veteran has a 4.71 ERA but hasn’t pitched in over a month for the Pirates. Still, this season, he’s faced 255 batters and has allowed a .180 ISO and wOBA of .366. These are below-average numbers. However, he’s also held opponents to nearly 43% of grounders and just 23% of fly balls.

Ultimately, Perez isn’t getting a high rate of strikeouts, which hurts him.

Tonight, Perez will face a Braves lineup that has struck out nearly 24% of the time against lefties in the last month. The Atlanta lineup has six batters with a high strikeout rate against lefties. Therefore, Perez could escape with a solid performance.

The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton. Morton is a righty who has watched his last 41 righties hit a .216 ISO and wOBA of .360. He hasn’t been terrible against righties all season, but recently, he’s struggled against them.

Lucky for him, the Pirates only have one right-handed bat that has hit righties consistently over the last 30 days. That’s Andrew McCutchen. The rest of the lineup is either left-handed or just not a good righty.

Therefore, the Under is calling our name for Game 1 of the series. It’s one of our MLB best bets today. Take the Under 8.5 (+102).

This is the most anticipated game of the weekend. Paul Skenes will get the ball for the Pirates. He’s a rookie righty who has earned nearly 34% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. He’s also limited teams to 3.4% of walks and has allowed a .149 ISO and wOBA of 274 to his last 119 batters.

Atlanta has been much worse against right-handed starters. The bottom of the order will be a wash against Skenes.

Skenes will face Atlanta’s ace, Max Fried. The lefty Fried has held his last 96 batters to a .080 ISO and wOBA of .268. Fried has also earned more than 27% of strikeouts and has kept walks down to 6.2%.

We should get two gem performances on the mound. Therefore, our free MLB picks for Saturday will also be the under in this matchup.

The Pirates will go with another lefty, Bailey Falter, in the series finale. Falter has only earned 16.2% of strikeouts this season. Like Perez, Falter has a high ISO and wOBA but also a high ground ball rate and low fly ball rate.

His numbers should also improve down the line if he continues to put these types of stats up.

Meanwhile, he’ll face Spencer Schwellenbach, a rookie pitcher who has struggled slightly against lefties. The Pirates have Brayan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Rowdy Tellez hitting right-handers well over the last 30 days. Don’t be surprised if the Pirates pull one out on Sunday to close out this Pirates vs Braves series preview.

Pirates vs Braves Odds

For MLB scores, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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