Cubs Look to Slow Down First-Place Phillies

Looking to build on baseball’s best record, the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Chicago Cubs for a three-game set at historic Wrigley Field. The Phillies vs Cubs previews Michael Mercado to make his first Major League start opposite Hayden Wesneski in Tuesday’s opener (8:05 p.m. ET). Who will have the upper hand?

• Chicago is -1.5 (+150) on the run line and -130 on the moneyline for the series opener, with Philadelphia +1.5 (-182) and +110. Meanwhile, the projected total is 9.5 with a slight lean to the Under at -122 odds. Bettors can get the Over at +100.

Phillies vs Cubs Betting Trends

The Philadelphia Phillies have been profitable from a betting perspective, going 45-39 against the run line. That includes 5-5 over the last 10 games. They’ve been a much bigger liability for Over/Under bettors with a mark of 36-43-5.

The Chicago Cubs, meanwhile, are just 39-46 against the run line. As for the Over/Under, the Cubs are 36-45-4.

That’s important to remember when analyzing the odds in our Phillies vs Cubs preview.

Injuries or Not, Philly is Tops

The Phillies have maintained their pace as the National League’s best team in the wake of injuries, improving to 55-29 following a four-game split against Miami. They overcame a four-run deficit to beat the Marlins 7-6 on Sunday.

Philadelphia holds an eight-game lead on Atlanta atop the NL East and owns the best record in baseball. It also has the majors’ biggest run differential (plus-121).

• Despite losing Bryce Harper (hamstring) and Kyle Schwarber (groin) to the 10-day injured list, the Phillies remain among the teams to beat. Oddsmakers have them +275 to win the NL and +550 to win the World Series, the third-best odds behind the Dodgers (+310) and Yankees (+475).

Harper, named to his eighth All-Star team last week, strained his left hamstring in Thursday’s 7-4 loss to Miami. The two-time MVP is hitting .303 with 20 homers and 58 RBI. He ranked near the top of the NL in several offensive categories, including on-base percentage (.399, fifth), slugging percentage (.582, second), and OPS (.981, second).

Schwarber, who is batting .250 with 17 homers and 49 RBI, strained his left groin earlier in the same game.

The Phillies, who rank fourth in MLB in runs scored (420) and first in ERA (3.08), have covered in 53.6% of their games. That’s the fifth-highest rate in the NL.

Cubs Woes Grow

The Cubs are reeling, having lost six of their last eight games to fall a season-worst seven games under .500 (39-46). They went just 11-16 in June, falling to last place in the NL Central, 11.5 games behind Milwaukee.

Sunday’s 7-1 loss to the Brewers concluded a 2-5 road trip for Chicago. The Cubs scored just 21 runs over those seven games, and their run differential is now minus-30.

• As such, the Cubs’ MLB playoff odds keep sinking. They are +500 to make the postseason, a huge disappointment given their expectations (projected for 84.5 wins).

With the trade deadline fast approaching, the Cubs are staring at the possibility of a lost summer. Multiple veterans could be on the move as the club retools for next season and beyond, including outfielder Cody Bellinger. The former NL MVP, who signed a three-year, $80 million extension in February, has hit only nine homers with 34 RBI and a .743 OPS.

The Cubs rank just 19th in runs scored (347) and 22nd in OPS (.679).

They remain a liability for bettors, as evidenced by their 39-46 record against the run line. They have failed to cover in seven of their last 11 games.

Series Probables

Mercado is the next man up in Philadelphia’s rotation after Taijuan Walker (finger) and Spencer Turnbull both landed on the 15-day IL. The 25-year-old Mercado made his Major League debut in a one-inning relief stint last week but had been working as a starter at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In 14 appearances (10 starts) with the IronPigs, Mercado had a 1.71 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 47.1 innings.

Mercado — the organization’s No. 30 prospect per MLB Pipeline — shouldn’t face significant restrictions with his pitch count.

The Cubs will counter with Wesneski, who is 2-4 with a 3.60 ERA. The 26-year-old right-hander has worked mostly as a reliever but got a spot start Wednesday in San Francisco to give some arms additional rest. However, with Javier Assad landing on the 15-day IL (forearm), Wesneski could have a longer stay in the rotation.

He logged 72 pitches over four innings against San Francisco, so he may face some limitations.

Keep that in mind when assessing the odds in our Phillies vs Cubs preview.

• Wheeler continues to perform as one of baseball’s best pitchers, establishing himself as a +290 favorite to win his first NL Cy Young. He is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, and his 13 quality starts are second to only Kansas City’s Seth Lugo and Seattle’s Logan Gilbert.

Wheeler has worked at least seven innings in eight of his 17 starts, in which the Phillies are 7-1 per MLB results.

He will face Imanaga, who is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA. The rookie left-hander struggled in June (5.67 ERA), though much of that can be chalked up to one dismal start. He was tagged for 10 runs on 11 hits over three innings in an 11-1 loss to the Mets on June 21.

• After spending more than a month as the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes has overtaken him as a -210 favorite. At +750, Imanaga is now third on the odds board behind both Skenes and San Diego outfielder Jackson Merrill (+450).

Sanchez was spectacular in his last start, tossing a three-hit shutout in a 2-0 win over Miami on Friday. The 27-year-old southpaw — who signed a four-year, $22.5 million extension last month — has now been unscored upon in 16 straight innings.

Sanchez is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA and has allowed only one home run over his first 93.1 innings.

Taillon, meanwhile, is 4-4 with a 3.03 ERA. He’s gone at least six innings in four straight starts, providing much-needed stability in the wake of injuries.

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