It’s Anyone’s Series In Cincinnati
Pirates vs Reds Prediction: Stay Patient If You're Looking For Runs
With the NL Wild Card wide open, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds still have an opportunity to make the playoffs.
The Pirates and Reds are both multiple games below .500 and currently more than seven games out of first place in the NL Central. However, the Pirates are just 1.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot at 37-40, and the Reds are 2.5 games out of the Wild Card with a 36-41 record.
It’s still early in the season, but this three-game NL Central series could help dictate each team’s future on the MLB playoff odds board.
In Game 1 of the series, the Reds are slight favorites at -110, the Pirates are +100. More importantly, the total is set at 10, with the under slightly juiced to -111. This game is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the day.
Let’s see if our Pirates vs Reds prediction agrees with the oddsmakers.
Pirates vs Reds 
📊Records: Pittsburgh Pirates (37-40), Cincinnati Reds (36-41)
📍Location: Great American Ball Park
⏰Day/Time: 📺Streaming: Bally Sports Ohio, SportsNet-PIT
David Bednar Placed On 15-Day Injured List
The Pittsburgh Pirates‘ bullpen just got thinner. Former All-Star closer David Bednar strained his left oblique muscle and will miss at least two weeks.
Bednar has a 5.17 ERA with 16 saves in 34 relief appearances. He’s struggled this season but had a National League-best 39 saves in 2023.
With the injury, the Pirates called up left-hander Justin Bruihl from Triple-A to take his spot. Bruihl has a 6.75 ERA in six relief appearances this season. But he’ll get more opportunities to bring that number down over the next few weeks.
Will The Reds Bring Up Noelvi Marte?
Heading into the season, Noelvi Marte was expected to be one of the best rookies in the MLB. Some thought he would be among the MLB league leaders. However, he was suspended for PEDs and is struggling in his rehab assignment in Triple-A.
Marte’s rehab assignment will end on June 27. However, he’s batting .143 in Louisville and has seven hits with two RBIs to go with a .143 OBP. Marte also hasn’t hit a home run and has gone 0-for-20 over the last four days.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction & Odds For Game 1:
RL: Reds -1.5 (+175) ML: Reds -110, O/U: 10 -109/-111
⚾ Game 1 ⚾
Monday, 7:10 pm ET
Bailey Falter vs. Carson Spiers
Pittsburgh will give Bailey Falter the ball for the opening game of this series. Falter is a left-handed thrower who has allowed a .160 ISO and wOBA of .362 to his last 89 batters.
Falter has only struck out 17.4% of righties over the last 30 days. However, he’s at least held teams to 7.9% of walks and has earned about 43% of ground balls in that same time frame.
He’ll pitch against a Reds lineup that has hit a .162 ISO and wOBA of .354 over the last 30 days. The Reds have four hitters destroying lefties, including Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Santiago Espinal, and Luke Maile. The other half of the lineup has struggled.
Meanwhile, the Reds will run it back with Carson Spiers. He’s got a 3.20 ERA after facing 106 batters this season. Spiers hasn’t earned a high rate of strikeouts, but he’s allowed just 4.7% of walks while giving up a .111 ISO and wOBA of .304.
The Pirates have four batters hitting a high ISO and wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. Therefore, most of the lineup still has a wOBA of .295 or worse against rights for Pittsburgh.
With two pitchers holding an ERA below 4, we’d grab the Under 10 (-111) in Game 1 of this series.
⚾ Game 2 ⚾
Tuesday, 7:10 pm ET
Mitch Keller vs. Hunter Greene
In Game 2, Mitch Keller will get the start. He’s turned his season around with terrific pitching over the last 30 days. Keller has held teams to a .115 ISO and wOBA of .276 with nearly 24% of strikeouts and just 3.8% of walks in the last month.
Ultimately, the Reds’ lineup has struggled way more against right-handed pitching over the last month. Only Jeimer Candelario and TJ Friedl have put up excellent numbers for the Reds against righties. Will Benson has been consistent enough, but not as lethal as the other two.
Keller will face Hunter Greene of the Reds, who is pitching just as well. Greene probably could use more strikeouts, but he’s still held teams to a .138 ISO and wOBA of .289 over the last month. As suggested earlier, the Pirates’ bottom portion of the lineup hasn’t looked good against righties. That’ll help Greene escape any jam.
Our free MLB picks will include the Under in Game 2.
⚾ Game 3 ⚾
Wednesday, 1:10 pm ET
TBD vs. Andrew Abbott
It’s currently unclear who the Pirates will start in Game 3 of this series. At this point, it sounds like it’ll be Luis Ortiz. However, he pitched in a bulk role against the Rays on Friday and gave up six runs on ten hits in four innings.
The Pirates are likely second-guessing if they want to start him on Wednesday.
That said, the Reds have Andrew Abbott penciled into the start for this series finale. He’s a lefty who has allowed a .234 ISO and wOBA of .341 to his last 86 righties. He’s struggled to get ground balls all season long. Recently, it’s been worse. He’s allowed 34.5% of fly balls, with just 22.4% of ground balls induced against righties over the last 30 days.
Our Pirates vs Reds prediction for this game is Over.
Pirates vs Reds Odds
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