Mets Surging as Yankees Roll in for Subway Series

The New York Yankees and New York Mets renew their Subway Series rivalry on Tuesday (7:10 p.m. ET) at Citi Field. This is the first of four games between the teams this summer, with Yankee Stadium slated to host a two-game set July 23-24.

• The Yankees are -1.5 (+106) on the run line and -156 on the moneyline for the opener, with the Mets +1.5 (-128) and +132. Meanwhile, the projected total is 8.5 with a slight lean to the Under at -122. Bettors can get the Over at +100.

What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Yankees vs Mets MLB odds in our series preview.

Yankees vs Mets Betting Odds Trends

The New York Yankees are 46-34 against the run line, separating themselves as one of baseball’s most profitable teams for bettors. Their 57.5% cover rate is third-highest in the Major Leagues. They’ve been far more unpredictable for Over/Under bettors, going just 39-38-3.

• The New York Mets, meanwhile, are 37-39 against the run line. As for the Over/Under, New York is 38-36-2.

Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the Yankees vs Mets MLB odds.

Judge, Who Else? Carrying Bronx Bombers

The Yankees (52-28) are on a mini skid, having lost seven of their last 10 games. Despite that, they maintain a 1.5-game lead over Baltimore atop the American League East.

New York went 2-4 during its last six-game homestand against the Orioles and Braves, including a 3-1 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. Their pitching was hit particularly hard over that stretch, allowing 38 runs (17 in one game).

• When surveying the best MLB bets today, should bettors be concerned? In short, no. The Yankees are on the short list of contenders in the AL, regardless of their recent poor play. In fact, they remain +225 favorites to win the AL (+215 last week) and +475 to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (+310) have shorter odds.

That New York finds itself in this position isn’t a surprise. The Yankees, after all, were projected for 91.5 regular-season wins.

• Aaron Judge continues to carry the lineup. He leads baseball in homers (28), RBI (70) and OPS (1.108), putting him on course to win another AL MVP award. He’s the current leader in the clubhouse with -140 odds, ahead of Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson (+390), Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. (+500) and New York’s Juan Soto (+550).

There is now additional pressure on Judge to carry a lineup that’s without designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (left hamstring strain) and first baseman Anthony Rizzo (arm fracture) for the foreseeable future. They acquired J.D. Davis from Oakland on Sunday to help handle some of the DH duties in the meantime.

• The Yankees rank second in MLB in both runs (399) and homers (115) and fourth in run differential (plus-109).

@yankees Take the field with The Captain 👨‍⚖️ #yankees #mlb #baseball #aaronjudge ♬ original sound – Yankees

Heating Up

The Mets (37-39) have gotten hot this month, climbing back into the thick of the National League wild card race with 13 wins over their last 17 games. They’re coming off a 4-2 road trip against the Rangers and Cubs in which they averaged nearly seven runs per game.

The focus is now on getting back to .500, which they haven’t been since May 7 (18-18).

• The Mets (projected for 81.5 wins) trail San Diego by 1.0 game for the last wild card spot. Oddsmakers are still a bit skeptical of the Mets’ recent surge, pricing them +250 to make the playoffs. Nevertheless, some positive signs have emerged.

Signing J.D. Martinez has proved fortuitous. A solid veteran presence behind slugger Pete Alonso, Martinez is hitting .290 with nine homers, 32 RBI and an .870 OPS. He’s heated up at the same time as shortstop Francisco Lindor (13 HR, .743 OPS) and outfielder Brandon Nimmo (11 HR, .788 OPS).

Just as New York’s lineup has begun to heat up, however, it’s now dealing with adversity on the pitching side. Star closer Edwin Diaz is facing a 10-game suspension after he was ejected from Sunday’s 5-2 win over the Cubs for having an illegal substance on his pitching hand.

Diaz, who claimed he was using only rosin, sweat and dirt on his hand, will have to play a man short for the length of his suspension. Their bullpen was already without Brooks Raley (season-ending elbow surgery) and Sean Reid-Foley (shoulder).

The Mets rank 18th in ERA (4.09) and tied for eighth in MLB strikeouts by team (671).

Yankees vs Mets MLB Odds: Series Probables

Cole, in his first start since coming off the injured list because of elbow inflammation, allowed two runs and three hits over four-plus innings in a 7-6, 10-inning loss to Baltimore on June 19. The reigning AL Cy Young winner was on a strict pitch count, throwing 62 pitches (41 for strikes) before Aaron Boone went to the bullpen.

The Mets will counter with Peterson, who has a 3.97 ERA in four starts since returning from offseason hip surgery. The left-hander threw a season-high 100 pitches in his last outing, a 14-2 win over Texas on June 17. He allowed two runs over six innings while striking out six. The Mets are 3-1 in his appearances.

That’s important to remember when assessing the Yankees vs Mets MLB odds.

Gil is coming off his worst start as a Yankee, a seven-run shellacking over 1.1 innings in a 17-5 loss to Baltimore on June 20. He allowed eight hits, including a homer. Despite that, the 26-year-old right-hander remains a -120 favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, ahead of Boston outfielder Wilyer Abreu (+400) and Oakland reliever Mason Miller (+450).

He will face Manaea, who is 4-3 with a 4.16 ERA in his first year as a Met. The veteran southpaw took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start, a 5-3 loss to Texas on June 19. He lasted 5.2 frames, allowing three runs and three walks while striking out six.

For MLB expert picks, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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