MLB: Favorite / Underdog Report For The Week of June 24th
Favorites Were Small Winners Last Week With Red Sox Leading the Way
Keeping up with weekly trends is must-have information for bettors who want to beat baseball consistently. What happened in April has little to do with how we should attack games in June. Each week we’ll go beyond the MLB stats with a breakdown of current, seasonal, and historical trends against the moneyline to prepare you for Summer baseball.
Red Sox Making Their Move In AL East
The 2024 MLB standings show the Boston Red Sox 8.5 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East but after a 6-1 week (+507 units) the Sox have shaved five games off that lead over their last 10 games.
That streak has allowed Boston to take over the last wild card spot from the Kansas City Royals as we approach the halfway point in the season. Boston is followed by the Houston Astros (5-1, +403 units) and Cleveland Guardians (6-1, +3.97 units).
Teams that did not fare so well last week are the Toronto Blue Jays (0-7, -700), Kansas City 2-5 (-3.92), and Detroit Tigers (2-5, -385). Overall favorites won 59.2% of the games last week, turning a small 1.03 unit profit, while betting underdogs cost bettors 7.57 units. Last week’s profit added to a three-week run of success for favorites who are winning at a 62% (+14.21 units) clip since June 3rd.
The Cincinnati Reds are in the middle of a 9-2 run in that span, contributing 5.29 units, followed by the Cleveland Guardians at 8-3 (+3.22) and the Milwaukee Brewers (8-3, +2.59). Home teams were 58-44 (.569) last week, winning 7.54 units.
This is a trend to keep an eye on with it being the second week in a row that the home team has crushed bookmakers winning 19.52 units behind a 118-77 (.605) record. The Houston Astros are on a 5-1 run at home (+4.04) followed by the San Diego Padres who have won 7 of 8 (+3.67) and the Boston Red Sox at 5-2 (+3.52).
Those numbers get stronger when using a home favorite filter after discovering that 63.9% of home favorites cashed tickets last week (+5.26). Over the previous three weeks, home favorites have profited 4.75 units while winning 60.9% of their games.
The Cleveland Guardians are on a 15-4 (+7.87) run as a home favorite followed by the Philadelphia Phillies at 18-5 (+5.32) and the Seattle Mariners who have won 14 of their last 18 (+4.89 units). Let’s dig deeper into our June 24th favorite/dogs weekly report to see which teams have continued to be profitable over the last 30 days.
Underdog Bettors Are Getting Smashed
We’re all conditioned to think that betting underdogs is the way to profits but that has been a long and dark road over the last month with dogs producing a horrific record of 157-239 (.397). If you had bet every underdog over the previous 30 days, bookmakers would be rolling in your dough knowing you have lost almost 38% of a 100-unit bankroll.
The Chicago White Sox (-13.30), Toronto Blue Jays (-9.00), and the Oakland Athletics (-8.95) are a combined 12-50 as an underdog over the last month, losing 31.25 units. Road dogs are getting beat up with regularity losing 157 of their previous 247 games (.364) while costing bettors 40.37 units.
The Oakland Athletics have dropped 12 of 14 as a road underdog (-7.78), followed by the Chicago White Sox (-7.77) and the Toronto Blue Jays (-6.00). Our MLB expert picks for the week would be to focus on the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the St. Louis Cardinals because each of these teams is a combined 41-25 (.621) over the last month using a filter that weeds out any games that ask bettors to lay more than -150.
The Numbers Demand That We Bet Streaks
To complete our weekly favorite/underdog for the week of June 24th, we wanted to go deeper into the number to see if there was another layer that would weed out bad favorites or underdogs despite the numbers telling us that favorites have crushed bookmakers over the last 30 days.
We know that this doesn’t last throughout a season because right up until this time last month it was the dogs that were pounding the books.
What are the records in 2024 when going against a team that was a favorite/dog in their previous game? The numbers are staggering. If you bet against a team who were favored in their previous game, you would have a record of 149-224 (.400) with losses over more than 50 units (-50.10) in 2024.
The numbers are the complete opposite when betting against teams who were underdogs in their previous game with a 131-125 record (+1.26). These numbers indicate that if we’re going to find success this season we must ride the streaks and stop the thought process that a team is due for a loss.
This is the time of year to hunt for streaks. That does it for our June 24th weekly faves & dogs report, all the best with your wagers this week. Be sure to follow your favorite MLB home run leaders.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
