MLB: July 2nd Weekly Home/Road Report
Overall Faves Failed to Build Bankroll last Week, Still Won Almost 57% Games
Major League Baseball has crossed the halfway point and is headed straight for the All-Star break in mid-July. That’s when bettors take a step back and analyze what they just saw in the first half while devising an attack on how they will approach the rest of the season. We’ve always maintained that it’s best to take the season in increments of months because of the length of the season. We like to take it one step further by producing a July 2nd weekly home/road report to catch those hot streaks before they happen. Let’s get into what happened last week.
Favorites Find Success, Dogs Added To The Bankroll
As in most seasons, favorites continue to win at a decent clip with last week being no exception after producing a 49-37 record. That’s great for sports that offer -110 but we know baseball is designed to drain your bankroll over the long Summer months and that’s what happened last week with favorites dropping 1.32 units, while the underdogs squeezed out a tiny +0.03 profit.
It wasn’t all bad if you wagered on the home favorites who turned a profit of 2.70 units behind a 34-21 (.618) record. This is something you should keep an eye on as the season progresses because after the deadline you’re going to see a massive separation between the teams who are legit contenders and clubs who are looking towards the future.
Of course, the moneyline will reflect that difference making it imperative that we only bet on games that present bankroll-friendly numbers. Last week, the Minnesota Twins were tops with 2.53 units won (4-1), followed by Kansas City at 2.18 units (4-1) and the Houston Astros who won all three games as a favorite (+1.67). Overall in 2024, the Cleveland Guardians continue to dominate as a favorite with a 36-14 record, producing 13.26 units. They’re followed by the Kansas City Royals (+8.07) and the Philadelphia Phillies (+6.24).
Home Teams Hand Over A Massive Profit
Starting on the 25th of June, home teams were an impressive 50-36 (.581), and although that sometimes isn’t good enough to add to our bankroll, this week was the exception with 6.81 units added while road teams lost 8.10 units on a straight $100 wager.
We already mentioned what home favorites did last week but let’s put a month-long filter on the numbers to give us an idea of their direction. We see home favorites as a long-term wager option with a 156-87 record (.642) producing 18.13 units over the last 30 days.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been the most profitable with a 9-2 mark (+4.23), followed by the Seattle Mariners at 8-1 (+4.00) and the 10-3 San Diego Padres at +3.60 units won. This may be a time to peek at the MLB odds to win World Series because, for example, if a team like the San Diego Padres is getting hot and likely will add at the deadline, a 36-1 wager may not be the worst bet now before the odds plummet.
Bettors Continue to Ride The Home Town Wave
To conclude our July 2nd weekly home/road report, we wanted to go inside the numbers to see how the betting public did last month, and judging from the report many should have a massive bankroll.
Taking the home teams that received over 50% of the dollars wagered over the previous 30 days, we were happy to find that those teams produced a profit of 9.84 units behind a sparkling record of 152-92 (.623). Bettors found the most success backing the Milwaukee Brewers (10-2, +5.23), Seattle Mariners (8-1, +4.00), and the Atlanta Braves (8-2, +2.79 units).
There is a lot of the 2024 MLB schedule left but we recommend focusing your MLB predictions today on home teams with bankroll-friendly moneylines. That does it for our July 2nd weekly home/road report, all the best with your MLB wagers this week.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
