MLB: July 4th Weekly Favorite and Underdogs Report
Underdog Bettors Enjoyed Massive Week With 10.43 Units Won Behind a 41-46 Record.
Welcome to the only weekly betting report that focuses on last week’s betting tendencies and how we can apply what we saw to the upcoming week’s MLB card.
Today we’ll dive into last week’s favorite and underdog’s betting patterns and what teams are on the verge of going on a run, giving us the best chance to cash out on those MLB picks and parlays.
Of course, we’ll dive into the last 30 days of betting data and touch on MLB World Series odds for future bettors.
Underdogs Produce a Profit In Face of Under .500 Record
Filtering through last week’s MLB scores and odds we find that underdogs were cashing tickets at a rate of 45.1% but we know that’s usually good enough to turn a profit and right we are again after dogs put another 5.81 units in our bankroll.
Once again, the field of land mines known as Major League Baseball betting shows us that we need to be sharper than ever when betting on moneyline sports.
Favorites were 56-46 (54.9%) -5.03 units. When we break it down further we discover that road dogs were the most beneficial with 7.17 units of profit with a 29-35 record (45.3%).
Home dogs didn’t fare as well against the money with a 17-21 record aiding a 1.36 unit loss.
Our July 4th, weekly favorite/underdog report clearly shows that road dogs were strong but what teams were responsible for that success?
- The Cincinnati Reds were 4-2 as a road dog last week (+4.53 units), followed by the San Diego Padres at 3-1 (+3.10) and the Baltimore Orioles who won both games as a dog (+233 units). Road dogs would have been stronger had it not been for the Cleveland Guardians who lost all four games as a road dog (-4.00), Washington Nationals (1-3), Texas Rangers (1-3), Oakland Athletics (1-3), and Colorado Rockies (1-3). These five teams were a combined 4-16 (9.71) as a road dog last week.
Eliminating these five teams would have given bettors an incredible road dog record of 25-19 (.568) +16.88 units.
Favorites Continue To Cash Despite Recent Underdog Success
No matter how good road underdogs were last week, if we step back and look at the previous 30 days, we see that betting favorites has been the way to add to our bankroll.
With a record of 235-160 (.595), favorites have produced 4.70 units of profit while underdogs continue to push bettors further into the red with 29.05 units lost. We just learned that road dogs were terrific last week but beware because that’s not been the case over the previous 30 days (91-153, -32.03 units).
We look at the larger picture because a week is a microcosm of a season, a month allows us to uncover hidden dangers that current results may overshadow. Home favorites have blasted bookmakers with a 153-91 (.627) record over the last four weeks, stuffing our bankroll with 13.30 units. Road favorites are on a decent 81-67 (.547) run but that has bettors in the red (-7.20).
- The Milwaukee Brewers (8-2, +3.92) head the list of the most profitable home favorites over the last month, followed by the San Dego Padres (10-3, +3.60), and Cleveland Guardians (7-3, +2.23 units). We recommend staying away from teams like the Baltimore Orioles at home despite a 7-5 record.
Their moneyline numbers are not bankroll-friendly leading to a loss of 0.28 units despite a winning home mark.
July 4th favorite/underdog report: We’re Riding With These Four Teams This Week
- In 2024, four teams have been a step above for bettors starting with the Cleveland Guardians who are 53-31 (+16.53 units), followed by the Baltimore Orioles at 55-31 (+12.51), Milwaukee Brewers (52-35, +11.92) and Philadelphia Phillies (57-29, +9.03).
Combined these teams are 217-126 (.633) with a profit of 49.99 units. These clubs have been exceptional as overall favorites in 2024 with a .671 win percentage (+31.94) but even better as home favorites with a 106-43 (.711) record good for 27.36 units.
This prompts us to look at future odds for these clubs and we’re glad we did. The Guardians are still 20-1 to win the World Series while the Milwaukee Brewers are 24-1. If you’re looking for value those clubs are worth a shot now.
The Orioles are +750, Phillies 5-1 which are still better odds than what I suspect they’ll be as we get closer to October. That’s it for our July 4th favorite/underdog report, all the best to you and your wagers this week.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
