MLB Report: First Inning Betting Options Get Hotter
The Three Best MLB RIFI Betting Opportunities this Weekend
There are a few reasons why first-inning betting is popular among bettors. The top reason is that it’s a quick end to an MLB score and is fairly easy to handicap. There is nothing more to handicapping a first-inning prop than a pitcher’s recent form versus the first four or five hitters.
These are individual match-ups and should be handicapped as such. We did look at a pitcher’s history in the first inning because some guys don’t get lathered up until they have an inning behind them. We examined this weekend’s match-ups and determined the best MLB RIFI betting opportunities.
Friday: Bailey Ober (Twins) vs Logan Gilbert (Seattle)
Most books will have their yes/no first-inning run option set at .5 with a few offering odds on 1.5 runs, which gives the bettor a better plus money return but instead of simply scoring a single run we have to come up with two. In this match-up, the ‘no’ is -150 for one run and -450 to go under 1.5 (+290 over).
The Minnesota Twins are a top-10 team in runs scored in the first inning. However, they are on a cold streak of four straight games without scoring a first-inning run. They’ll face Logan Gilbert (5-4, 2.71) of the Seattle Mariners who has been sensational over his last four starts, allowing just four earned runs in his previous 29.2 innings (1.23) ERA.
Better yet, Gilbert has not allowed a first-inning run in six straight games and has a streak of 16 innings without allowing an earned run. Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.50) is the second of this equation. The veteran has allowed just three earned in his last 15.1 innings (1.76) but more importantly, he’s a strikeout pitcher who can get himself out of trouble. Ober had a four-game streak on no first-inning runs broken by the Oakland Athletics.
This is a good chance to jump on the ‘no’ (-150) as our first MLB RIFI betting opportunity.
Saturday: Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh) vs Max Fried (Atlanta)
We don’t have first-inning numbers on this one yet but what a pitching match-up we have here with the Pirates young phenom Paul Skenes (4-0, 2.14) matching up against the veteran Max Fried (7-3, 3.00). We suspect the books will give a decent plus money on the ‘yes’ here and there’s a reason for that.
Skenes is as advertised with a sparkling ERA and 61 k’s in just 46 ⅓ innings. In his last three starts, the former Air Force and LSU star allowed just two earned runs in his previous 19.1 innings (0.93). For as good as he is, the first inning tends to give him trouble.
He’s allowed first-inning runs in his last two starts against the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds and he’ll be facing a Braves team who will come out aggressive against his blazing fastball and are in the upper half in baseball in first-inning runs scored, but have not pushed one across in five straight games.
Fried has almost matched Skenes with just two earned runs allowed in his last 11 ⅓ (1.59) and has not allowed a first-inning run in eight straight games. This looks like an easy no but eight of the previous 10 meetings between these two clubs have cashed over tickets, we need to get one of those runs in the first inning to cash a plus money ticket. This is worth a small ‘yes’ wager.
Sunday: Logan Allen (Cleveland) vs Seth Lugo (Kansas City)
Potential MLB playoff brackets surprise when you notice that Cleveland and Kansas City are on track to make the postseason. Much of that success has come because of today’s starters. Logan Allen (8-3, 5.72) owns a terrific record. That’s due to an offense that has scored 6.16 runs per game in his starts.
Over his last nine innings, the lefty has allowed nine earned runs with five walks and seven strikeouts. Allen has allowed first-inning runs in his previous two starts. Meanwhile, the Royals are 12th in the majors in first-inning runs scored.
Lugo is coming off a six-inning shutout against the Miami Marlins after allowing just two hits in six innings pitched. In his last three starts, Lugo has allowed just four earned in 18 â…” innings (1.93). He has not allowed a first-inning run in three straight starts.
We think there could be some plus money with the ‘yes’ here. But Allen’s win/loss record is better than it would be on most teams because of the support he’s received. Let’s grab the ‘yes’ here.
That does it for our MLB RIFI betting opportunities this week. All the best to your MLB picks this weekend and remember to have fun with these prop bets.
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