MLB Report: How Far Can Pitching Take Bettors?
We Examine the Betting Value for Teams Playing Great Defense
Pitching has always been the starting point for most Major League Baseball handicappers because starters and now bullpens are believed to be the gateway to winning tickets.
That prompted us to ask, is pitching and more importantly streaky pitching as valuable as the public concludes, and if it is how long can we ride great pitching? Let’s start our betting value analysis for teams on a defensive streak.
Is Winning As Simple As Backing The Best Pitchers?
Before we get to streaks and their long-term impact, let’s look at the teams with the top pitching and see if that provides an easy path to cashing tickets.
- The Philadelphia Phillies (3.08), New York Yankees (3.28), Los Angeles Dodgers (3.29), Baltimore Orioles (3.40), and Cleveland Guardians (3.50) are the clubs with the best team ERA’s to date. We put those teams into the filter to find an incredible result.
The combined record of these teams is 254-143 (.640) good for 46.27 units. The Guardians (+20.18) and New York Yankees (+11.55) are the top two profit-producing MLB teams stats in the majors.
Four teams are in the top six and only the Los Angeles Dodgers have not produced a profit (-1.59) even though they are 50-31 (.617).
New post (Shohei Ohtani Likes Leadoff + Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup, City Connects, Tyler Glasnow & More) has been published on 速報メジャーリーグ – https://t.co/C6avBE6dqH pic.twitter.com/1nxe7Cu7BM
— major (@ohtani_iroiro) June 24, 2024
That’s overall pitching but do starters have more value to bettors than relief pitching? Every team in the top overall pitching list is among the clubs with the top starting pitching except for the Cleveland Guardians, they’ll be replaced with the Seattle Mariners (+1.74) whose starters are fifth in baseball with a 3.44 ERA.
- That quintet of teams is 248-154 (.617) +27.83 units. If overall pitching and starting pitching return a profit then it’s a safe bet that the top bullpens will follow suit.
The Guardians (2.34), Dodgers (3.02), Atlanta Braves (3.21), Milwaukee Brewers (3.22), and the Phillies own baseball’s top pens, and as you would imagine they have combined to to profit 30.04 units on the back of a 243-150 (.618).
If you want to take it a step further and think about MLB World Series future odds, it would figure that a team with great pitching will win the Fall classic.
- You can get the Cleveland Guardians (+1600), Seattle Mariners (+1400), and the Milwaukee Brewers at +2500.
Every one of the teams has pitching good enough to make noise in the postseason. The theories about pitching are glaringly true with the teams with the best overall pitching crushing books in 2024.
Streak Betting Does Not Match Season-Long Trend
We know what clubs with great pitching have done all season, but let’s take it further to determine how far we can rely on quality pitching from game to game.
- Teams coming off a game where they’ve allowed three runs or less are 554-520 (.516/-22.55). Two straight well-pitched games have produced a 264-245 (.519/-12.00) record.
The game after three in a row is where we start to see the decline with a 51-60 record (-15.88 units) and 20-21 after five games (-4.88).
These numbers make sense for most teams because the deeper we get into the starting rotation the less likely teams will continue their streak of terrific pitching. Let’s put an MLB betting odds filter on these numbers of -150 or less to reveal a betting pothole.
- Teams allowing less than three runs in their previous game using our new filter are 400-449 (-34.63) and 192-204 (-7.59) after two straight games.
After three straight well-pitched games, bettors are 36-50 (-12.89) and 15-14 (-0.05) after five.
It’s Interesting how pitching means so much to bettors in the big picture but not as reliable when betting on streaks.
Get What You Can For Now
We know what we have in 2024, but do our findings coincide with history, or is this year an anomaly? Last season the Milwaukee Brewers (3.71), San Diego Padres (3.73), Seattle Mariners (3.74), Toronto Blue Jays (3.78) and Tampa Bay Rays (3.86) led the majors in pitching. Combined we find a massive difference in 2023 versus what we’ve seen this year.
- Those five teams were 450-360 (.556) but bankrolls were in the red with 23.05 units lost.
So why the discrepancy? When we analyze an entire season we’re dealing with those late-season inflated numbers that the better team has to overcome in late August and September.
We can eliminate those massive favorites by putting a -140 or better filter on these numbers. Bettors would have lost a minuscule 0.78 units with a 231-222 (.510) record.
It is that time of year when we can start focusing on the MLB standings but bettors should continue zeroing in on the top pitching staffs, but be aware that history tells us that bookmakers will be on the lookout for recouping those early losses by putting a premium on the top teams.
That does it for our MLB team’s defensive betting value, all the best with your picks and parlays this week.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
