MLB: Weekly Home/Road Report For June 24th
Home Teams Were 41-37 Last Week Profiting 5.36 Units, Led by Astros, Marlins, and Guardians
This week we’ll hit the halfway point of the season, making it the time of year when fans tend to focus on potential MLB playoff brackets while bettors can dig into half a season of trends that will help us shove bookmakers deep into the red with sharp MLB picks to finish off the 2024 season.
Let’s break down how home and road teams fared over the last week and how that adds to trends to be aware of moving forward.
Home Teams Profit for Second Straight Week
A profit of 5.36 units over seven days may not seem like much but we’re in the middle of a marathon where any profit is welcomed, especially when that profit comes with a winning record (41-37).
Too often baseball forces us to find our way into the black by losing more than we win because underdogs can give us a short burst of profit while failing to put us over the .500 mark.
This week home teams added to a two-week run that has been one of the best of the season with 75 winners in 137 games (.548), a mark that has produced 11.71 units.
- The Houston Astros have won four of five at home (+3.43) over the last couple of weeks followed by the Miami Marlins (+3.38) and the Cleveland Guardians (+2.96). Combined bettors are 13-4 with 9.78 units added to their bankroll when playing at home.
Like with most trends, there is the flip side, and that is where the Colorado Rockies (3-7), Toronto Blue Jays (-2.33), and Detroit Tigers (1-3) come in.
Combined those teams lost 14 of 20 at home, taking 7.53 units off the home profits. If we eliminate those three teams, home profits would be 19.23 units over the last two weeks with a record of 69-48 (.590).
- Let’s put a -150 filter on the numbers because we have to be conscious of our bankroll. Over the last two weeks, the bankroll-friendly home teams are 75-62, profiting 11.71 units.
We recommend sticking with the Astros, Marlins, Guardians, and New York Mets as a home favorite of -150 or less after posting a 16-4 (+12.64) record over the previous two weeks.
Remember when Max Scherzer struck out 20 against his former Detroit Tigers?
Can “Mad Max” find his stuff again to help lead the Texas Rangers to a playoff push?#madmax #scherzer #mlb #mlbnews pic.twitter.com/1uID0PWunE
— ScullyShotguns (@ScullySports) June 25, 2024
Do Powerful Line-Ups Equal Winning Tickets?
The Baltimore Orioles (125), New York Yankees (115), Los Angeles Dodgers (108), Houston Astros (94), and the Philadelphia Phillies (94) are the top home run teams in 2024, but do those teams cash tickets and what is the difference when we add a home/road split to the equation? These five teams have been at the core of cashed tickets for a long time.
Over the last three years, the quintet of teams is an incredible 1188-824 (.592) profiting 63.30 units, clearly exposing a trend among teams that typically bring a powerful line-up to the park. 2024, is shaping up to be the best season for these teams with over 18 units won to date with a TOI of 4.6%.
- The best part is that you don’t have to pick and choose when to wager on these teams because they are equally reliable at home (109-78, +10.55) and on the road (127-74, +7.39).
Since May 27th your bankroll would be up 4.29 units with a record of 75-51 (.595) and 37-23 (.617) when betting these clubs at home. Let’s conclude our June 24th weekly home/road report with a new trend to follow with trepidation.
懐かしの再会@シカゴ#LetsGoDodgers #ShoheiOhtani #Shotime #dodgers pic.twitter.com/8y6gREu13r
— Full-Count MLB取材班 (@fullcountmlbc2) June 24, 2024
Road Teams Coming Off A Loss Have Crushed Books
We have established in previous stories that we should chase teams who are due for a loss or win but betting on road teams who are coming off a single loss continues to lead our bankroll to prosperity.
The best part about this trend is that it allows us to win more than we lose while producing a massive profit. Here’s the breakdown. This filter has produced 22.36 units of profit in 2024 behind a respectable record of 153-146.
This trend has continued over the last couple of weeks with road teams coming off a single loss are 27-25 (+4.75). As usual, nothing is as great as it seems when we look at this trend historically because this filter has not produced a profit since 2014 and was just a little over three units.
- You’d have to travel back to 2011 to see a significant win (+21.92). Since then, a trend that once looked so promising to begin the paragraph we find has lost almost 166% of your bankroll behind an overall record of 3297-3814 (.464).
We recommend moving forward with its current run but only until you smell it going South because we predict the success of this trend will crash soon and then it’s time to ride the opposite out for the rest of the season. This does it for our June 24th weekly home/road report, all the best with your MLB wagers this week.
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