Padres, Red Sox Both Heating Up Ahead of Series
Value in San Diego in Padres vs Red Sox Betting Odds
The San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox are on similar trajectories. Both clubs have rebounded from inconsistent starts to climb into the thick of the MLB playoff picture as the calendar rolls toward July.
Friday (7:10 p.m. ET), they open a three-game series at Fenway Park with Nick Pivetta opposing fellow right-hander Randy Vazquez.
MLB odds have Boston as -1.5 (+140) on the run line and -154 on the moneyline, with San Diego +1.5 (-170) and +130 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 9.5 with an edge to the Under at -115.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Padres vs Red Sox betting odds in our Major League Baseball series preview.
Game 1 Info
Padres vs Red Sox 
Day/Time:
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Streaming: Apple TV+
Padres vs Red Sox Betting Trends
The San Diego Padres are 43-42 against the run line, including 25-14 on the road. That’s significantly better than their home mark (18-28).
- The Padres have also been profitable for Over/Under bettors, going 45-39-1.
The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, are just 36-44 against the run line. At 45%, they have the fourth-lowest cover rate in baseball, ahead of the White Sox (43.9), Twins (43.8), and Marlins (42.5). As for the Over/Under, Boston is 37-38-5.
That’s important to remember when analyzing the Padres vs Red Sox betting odds.
No Tatis, No Problem?
After an inauspicious start, the Padres have begun to pick up the pace. They’ve followed up their five-game losing streak by winning seven of their last eight games. At 44-41, they control the last playoff spot in the National League.
Coincidentally, the Padres’ surge coincides with the loss of their best all-around player, Fernando Tatis Jr. The star outfielder, who was hitting .279 with 14 homers and 36 RBI, is expected to be out until after next month’s All-Star break because of a stress reaction in his right thigh bone.
Tatis had been dealing with the injury for most of the season. It wasn’t until recently, however, that they discovered the severity of the issue. Tatis could have continued playing, but the injury wouldn’t have gotten better without rest. Thus, it warranted a trip to the 10-day MLB injured list.
Despite his absence, San Diego’s odds of making the playoffs remain generally favorable at +110.
- The Padres — who were projected for 83.5 regular-season wins — are also +2500 to win the NL.
The Padres went 6-1 on their recent homestand against Milwaukee and Washington, averaging 6.8 runs per game. They were also 5-2 against the run line, improving their cover rate 50.6% on the season.
Red Sox Showing Resolve
Winners of eight of their last 10 games, the Red Sox are among the hottest MLB teams in baseball. While they’re only third in the American League East, 8.0 games behind the first-place Yankees, the Red Sox find themselves in the thick of the wild card race.
At 43-37, they are a season-best six games above .500. They split the first two games of this homestand against the Blue Jays before Wednesday’s rubber game was suspended in the second inning because of rain. It’ll resume as part of a split doubleheader on Aug. 26, with the score tied 0-0.
Boston has boosted its playoff odds to +170, though it remains a +2800 longshot to outlast the rest of the competition in the AL.
Health, as it is with any team, is key. The Red Sox are hoping to soon get back first baseman Triston Casas, who is on the 60-day IL with fractured rib cartilage.
The 24-year-old slugger, who finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting last season, was batting .244 with six homers and 10 RBI prior to his injury.
Outfielders Tyler O’Neill and Wilyer Abreu — formerly one of Boston’s top prospects, per MLB Pipeline — have also spent time on the IL, along with pitcher Brayan Bello.
Despite that, Boston — which was projected for 77.5 wins — has stayed competitive. The Red Sox have mainly hovered around .500, falling no more than two MLB games under at any point.
Series Probables
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
- Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Randy Vazquez vs Nick Pivetta
Vazquez is coming off his best outing of the MLB season — five scoreless innings in a 6-4 win over Milwaukee on June 22. Otherwise, he’s been hit hard. The right-hander has an unsightly 5.10 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, with 10 homers allowed in 47.2 innings.
The Red Sox will counter with Pivetta, who is 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA. Pivetta lasted only 4.1 innings in his most recent start, June 22 against Cincinnati (3 ER, 5K). However, the Red Sox improved to 7-4 in his appearances.
Keep that in mind when assessing the Padres vs Red Sox betting odds.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
- Saturday, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Michael King vs Tanner Houck
King has had a strong June, though he struggled in his last start. The right-hander allowed five runs over six innings in a 6-2 loss to Milwaukee on June 23, raising his ERA for the month to 2.93. On the season, King is 5-5 with a 3.75 ERA and 109 strikeouts, seventh-most in baseball.
He faces Houck, who is anchoring Boston’s rotation with a career year. Houck is 7-5 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, placing himself among the AL Cy Young favorites.
- He is +900, matching Chicago’s Garrett Crochet for the third-best odds behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (+170) and Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes (+250).
Houck has gone at least six innings in 13 of his 16 starts this season.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
- Sunday, 1:35 p.m. ET
- Matt Waldron vs Josh Winckowski
The knuckleballing Waldron has been impressive, registering a 3.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He owns a 1.95 ERA in five starts this month, during which he’s allowed only one homer over 32.1 innings.
Winckowski, meanwhile, has worked mostly as a reliever. However, he logged a season-high six innings (91 pitches) out of the bullpen in his last appearance, a 9-4 loss to Toronto on Tuesday.
The right-hander has a 3.26 ERA in 13 outings (three starts). It was his first time on the mound for Boston since a six-week stint with Triple-A Worcester.
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