St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Preview and Odds
Resurgent Cardinals Look To Keep Winning
The St. Louis Cardinals appeared to be headed toward a second-straight disappointing non-playoff season in early May, sitting at 15-24 with pretty much the entire lineup either slumping or injured. Since then, they’ve gone 28-16 to climb over .500 and into the third Wild Card spot in the National League.
They’ll try to add to their cushion this week against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been a .500 team for the last two months. If you’re making Cardinals vs Pirates predictions for Tuesday’s series opener, note that Pittsburgh is actually a -122 moneyline favorite while St. Louis is +158 to win by two or more runs on the runline. The total is 8.5 runs.
St. Louis is coming off a four-game split against the Cincinnati Reds. It was a weird series as the Cardinals gave up 20 total runs in the two losses and no runs in the two wins. That’s kind of how the season has gone for St. Louis which has an ugly -40 run differential — worse than that any NL team other than the Marlins and Rockies — but has been able to find ways to win their games on the MLB schedule today. However, that may mean some negative regression is forthcoming.
The story is the opposite for the Pirates who have scored and given up almost exactly the same amount of runs as the Cardinals yet haven’t been as fortunate with respect to their game scores. Pittsburgh’s starting rotation, led by some big young power arms, has been a pleasant surprise but the lineup and bullpen have been major disappointments and are holding Derek Shelton’s team back.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates 
Day/Time:
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Streaming: MLB
Cardinals’ Rotation Is Hit Or Miss
Overall, St. Louis’ starting pitching has been passable, with middle-of-the-pack numbers across the board. Sonny Gray has been particularly impressive. However, for your Cardinals vs. Pirates predictions for this series, note that Gray won’t pitch. Instead, the Cardinals will have the veterans Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas on the mound for the first two games and reliever-turned-starter Andre Pallante for Thursday’s finale.
Gibson has also been very good, pitching to a 3.70 ERA in 15 starts. He looks like a different pitcher than the guy who gave up the most hits in the AL last season for the Baltimore Orioles, as he’s striking more guys out and allowing way fewer hits. He is walking nearly four batters per game which is a little concerning for someone without over-powering stuff but, so far, he has been able to make it work.
The concern for the Cardinals is with Mikolas and, to a lesser extent, Pallante. Mikolas is getting hit hard to the tune of a 5.32 ERA and a MLB-high 56 earned runs. Plus, he’s coming off a 2023 campaign in which he led the Majors in hits allowed (226) and the NL in earned runs. Those are not categories you want to be first in the MLB rankings in. Pallante has acquitted himself in the rotation — he held the Reds scoreless in 5 1/3 innings his last time out. Still, he doesn’t go deep into games and isn’t totally comfortable as a starter.
Pirates Need To Manufacture Runs
Pittsburgh Pirates is toward the bottom of the barrel in most offensive categories so it’s interesting that the Cardinals vs Pirates predictions for Vegas have the Pirates as favorites. They’re 25th in runs scored, 27th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage and 28th in OPS. And, when you look at their roster, the Pirates’ offensive struggles come into even clearer focus. They have just three players — Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen — with 10+ home runs and their best OPS+ belongs to catcher Joey Bart, who wasn’t even on the team until April 2nd and is coming off a length IL stint.
Reynolds is the clear offensive star and while his 25-game hitting streak just ended, he’s having an All-Star caliber season on a team that doesn’t give him much lineup protection. Cruz is very up-and-down at the plate, McCutchen is in a bit of cold spell, Nick Gonzales has great contact skills without much power and Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a major disappointment. The offense does not have much depth and without being a big stolen base team — surprising for a relatively young group — it’s hard for the Pirates to generate offense.
Go With Gibson And St. Louis
So, if you want to make MLB predictions, you should definitely do a double-take before going with the Pirates straight-up as -122 favorites. Mitch Keller is having a really good season and matches up favorably with Kyle Gibson but Gibson is pitching well too and the Cardinals’ offense, while underwhelming overall, has been looking much better as of late.
Consider taking the Cardinals to win outright at +104 or if you want big value, take them on the runline at +158. St. Louis is a hot team and they shouldn’t be underdogs against Pittsburgh without a major pitching disadvantage. The under 8.5 runs (-118) is enticing as well.
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