The Phillies Rotation Should Cruise Past Detroit

The Philadelphia Phillies will take a trip to Detroit to take on the Tigers in a three-game interleague series. While the Tigers have dropped in the standings after a hot start, the Phillies have stayed at the top of the National League with 51 wins this season.

The Phillies have had the best starting rotation in baseball besides Taijuan Walker. But now that Walker is on the Injured List, the rotation is filled with pitchers holding a sub-4.00 ERA on the season. While the Tigers can’t say the same, they’ve got a couple of tremendous arms, including Tarik Skubal, who has a 2.50 ERA this year.

• If these pitching rotations continue to produce, we could have a very low-scoring series. That said, the Phillies are -170 favorites on the road, and the total is set at 8.5, with the under juiced to -125.

Take a look at our Phillies vs Tigers prediction for this three-game interleague battle to begin the week.

Spencer Turnbull Gets His Chance

Spencer Turnbull has been a starter this entire year. However, he’s only started six games this season and lost his starting rotation spot to Taijuan Walker when he returned from the injured list.

In the bullpen, Turnbull was sensational. He’s currently holding a 2.63 RA on 16 games this season. Additionally, he’s got a WHIP of 1.05 and has added more strikeouts than innings thrown.

Over the weekend, Walker landed on the injured list with a finger injury. He’s struggled badly against left-handed hitters and ultimately needed a break. Now, the Phillies can run it back with Turnbull, who has been much more consistent than Walker this season.

Life Without Kerry Carpenter

Although the Tigers succeeded yesterday, the Detroit offense has struggled without Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter has been out for more than four weeks with a stress fracture in his lower back. When asked about his frustration level, he admitted that he misses everybody and wants to return to the field. Before Sunday, the Tigers had scored six runs.

They’re also 9-14 since Carpenter’s injury and trending down in the MLB standings 2024.

Series win!#RepDetroit

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) June 23, 2024

Phillies vs Tigers Prediction & Odds  For Game 1:

RL: Phillies -1.5 (-110) ML: Phillies -170, O/U: 8.5 +105/-125

The Phillies will give Aaron Nola the ball for Game 1 of this series. He’s currently 8-3 with a 3.54 EERA on the season. However, he’s pitched poorly against right-handed batters over the last 30 days, allowing a .234 ISO and wOBA of .354.

Still, this hasn’t been a common theme this season. Righties have hit just a .134 ISO and wOBA of .299 against Nola throughout the year.

Nola will face a Tigers projected lineup that has hit a .175 ISO and wOBA of .306 against righties in the last month. The team has watched the majority of the lineup struggles. Only Matt Vierling, Riley Greene, and Carson Kelly have put up top-tier numbers against righties over the last month.

Conversely, Casey Mize will be penciled into the rotation tonight. He’s also a righty who has a 4.43 ERA on the season. Despite pitching average, Mize has only recorded one win this season. His strikeout rate is low, and he’s allowed a .170 ISO and wOBA of .406 for his last 57 lefties.

That’s not good news going up against power lefties like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Make sure to check the MLB scores today. The left-handed bats in the Phillies lineup should do plenty of damage. Therefore, we’ll back the Phillies at -170 as one of our big MLB predictions today.

In the second game of the series, we’ll get a battle between Cy Young candidates. Ranger Suarez has a 1.75 ERA with the Phillies. He’s also 10-1 on the season and has looked tremendous against right-handed hitters. Suarez has held righties to a .084 ISO and wOBA of .239 over the last 30 days. You can expect Suarez to face predominantly right-handed batters in Detroit’s lineup in this one.

On the other hand, Tarik Skubal will pitch for the Tigers. He’s also a lefty who has held teams to a 2.50 ERA this season. That said, Skubal has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .353 to his last 106 righties. While his strikeout rate could be higher, he’s giving up more power and a higher wOBA than Suarez.

We’d still side with the Phillies in Game 2 in a tight matchup.

Spencer Turnbull will start for the Phillies with Taijuan Walker on the injured list. Turnbull hasn’t started a whole lot for the Phillies, but he’s struggled against lefties recently. Lefties have hit a .294 ISO and wOBA of .462 in 23 plate appearances over the last 30 days.

However, against righties, the Detroit projected lineup has a .157 ISO and wOBA of .277 against righties. That’s not going to scare us away from Turnbull.

Meanwhile, the Tigers will push Jack Flaherty’s start back due to lower back tightness. While we don’t know the plan for Detroit in Game 3, they’ll likely ride with Keider Montero from Triple-A or go with a bullpen game.

Montero has already pitched in the MLB and would be lined up to start Wednesday for the Triple-A squad. However, he has a 5.03 ERA in Triple-A.

Our Phillies vs Tigers prediction is that we’ll see a sweep from the Phillies in this series.

For MLB picks, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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