Twins vs D’Backs Best Bets: Totals Show Early Promise
Minnesota Visits Arizona For Three Games
The Minnesota Twins (42-35) travel to the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks (38-40) for three MLB games starting Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to be nearly 110 degrees all three days.
The Twins are in second place in the AL Central, while Arizona is in third place in the NL West.
The Twins are playing decent baseball and have won seven of their last 10 games, while the Diamondbacks have gone 6-4.
- Joe Ray and Brandon Pfaadt are the scheduled starters for Tuesday’s game. Minnesota is -115 and the total on the game is 8.5-under (-120).
Totals could be the way to go in this series for your Twins vs D’Backs best bets.
The Twins are No. 12 in team batting average, hitting .247 on the MLB season. Minnesota is No. 5 in MLB in home runs and are scoring 4.7 runs per game.
That increases slightly to 4.9 runs on the road. The Twins have hit left-handers a little better and are 19-19-1 in totals on the road.
Minnesota’s pitching has been a little below average, with the team ranking No. 21 in team ERA. The bullpen has been fair, with the relief pitchers doing a little better at home. The Twins have 24 saves in 34 attempts on the year.
Arizona is No. 8 in team batting average with a .251 mark, although it doesn’t have the power of Minnesota. The Diamondbacks are No. 16 in home runs and are scoring 4.7 runs per game. That number climbs to 4.9 runs when Arizona is at home.
Arizona’s biggest weakness this season has been pitching. The Diamondbacks are No. 26 in team ERA and the bullpen hasn’t been much of a help. Arizona relievers have converted 16 saves in 28 opportunities. The relief pitchers have thrown slightly better at home.
Twins vs D’Backs 
Day/Time:
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Streaming: MLB Network
Tuesday’s Game
Ryan has been one of the bright spots for the Minnesota rotation and he’s tied at No. 22 among the MLB pitching leaders with a 3.13 ERA.
He pitches a little better on the road, where the Twins are 5-2 when he starts and 2-5 in totals. Ryan’s last three games have been solid, as he’s allowed two runs or less. He’s pitched at least five innings in all 15 stats this season.
Pfaadt isn’t pitching all that bad and he’s also lasted at five innings in each of his 15 starts. The Diamondbacks are 6-9 when he starts and 3-3 when he starts at home.
The total on this one is low for the Diamondbacks, who are 12-4 in home totals when the number is 8.5 or lower. Ryan could be due for a bit of a regression after his last few starts, so take the over 8.5 at even money for one of your Twins vs D’Backs best bets.
Wednesday’s Game
Simeon Woods Richardson is scheduled to start for the Twins against Ryne Nelson. Richardson is having a solid year for the Twins. Minnesota is 8-4 when he starts and 4-3 when he starts on the road. There isn’t a huge difference in his home and away numbers.
He’s been pretty solid regardless of the location. Richardson hasn’t pitched well when throwing at least six innings in his previous start, which is the case here. In three starts he’s allowed 11 runs in 13 1/3 innings.
Nelson is a bit of an oddity for Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 5-7 when he starts and 4-8 in totals despite his 5.61 ERA. Arizona is 4-2 when he starts at home and 1-5 when he takes the mound away from home. Nelson has had three pretty solid outings in his last four starts.
This isn’t an easy game from a handicapping perspective. There could be a bit of value in using Nelson and the Diamondbacks for one of your MLB picks for the night.
Thursday’s Game
Chris Paddack and Jordan Montgomery are the scheduled starters in Thursday’s final game of the series. Paddack has been pretty decent at home and just dismal on the road this season.
The Twins are 10-5 when he starts, although his 5.29 ERA isn’t exactly inspiring. At home, the Twins are 8-1 when Paddack starts and 2-4 when he starts on the road. His away ERA is an unsightly 7.84 on the season.
Montgomery pitched in the MLB World Series last year, but isn’t having an easy time in his first season with the Diamondbacks. Arizona is winning when he starts, which is the main thing.
The Diamondbacks are 9-4 when Montgomery starts, although his ERA is 5.20 on the year. His home numbers are even worse, with an ERA of 6.35, but the Diamondbacks are 6-2 in those games.
Neither pitcher is really getting the job done, although their baseball teams win when they take the mound. There’s really only one way to play this one and that’s to use the over as one of your Twins vs D’Backs best bets.
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