Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres Series Preview and Odds

The San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals are right in the thick of the jumbled National League Wild Card race as they open up a three-game series this week in Southern California. San Diego has won four of five to climb back to .500 while Washington has gone 11-4 in its last 15 games and is just one game below .500.

This Nationals vs Padres preview notes how, for Monday night’s opener, San Diego is a big -200 moneyline favorite and is +105 at -1.5 runs on the runline. The total is 8 runs.

San Diego lost on Sunday afternoon to the Milwaukee Brewers after winning the first three games of that series. The five-game skid the Padres were on last week feels like a distant memory. San Diego’s offense has woken up a bit even as Fernando Tatís Jr. has been dealing with dual elbow and quad injuries.

His status for Monday is up in the air as he missed the Padres’ last two games. Still, as the lines suggest, San Diego is one of the MLB best bets today with Matt Waldron on the mound against Patrick Corbin.

The Nationals have been playing really good baseball over the past few weeks and, while their trip to Coors Field didn’t feature the cleanest baseball from Washington, it wound up a series win. Dave Martinez’ team staged a furious 9th inning comeback on Sunday to beat the Rockies as Lane Thomas doubled in the tying run and Joey Meneses had the go-ahead single. Now, they’ll try to keep the winning mentality going against a tougher foe.

Padres Have Big Rotation Edge

While the matchups on the mound for the second and third games of this series are a bit more even (Yu Darvish against MacKenzie Gore and Dylan Cease against DJ Herz), the battle on the mound on Monday is one-sided in favor of San Diego, as this Nationals vs Padres preview will explain. Rookie part-time knuckleballer Waldron will start for the Padres against Corbin, who has a 5.60 ERA and has given up the most hits (99) in the Majors.

In Corbin’s credit, he has only allowed one run in each of his last two starts but the overall track record this season — and for the last five seasons — has been ugly. Waldron, on the other hand, has a 3.46 ERA and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since May 5th. In June, he has a 1.71 ERA with a .438 opponent OPS. It doesn’t get much better than that.

He should be able to put together another good start against a Nationals team that will likely have trouble matching the Padres score today. Waldron does a great job of keeping opposing hitters off-balance because he only uses his knuckleball a shade under 40 percent of the time. So, batters have to prepare to face the rest of his repertoire which makes the knuckleball even more effective when he breaks it out. It is not an easy at-bat when you go up against Waldron.

Nationals’s Offense Is Disappointing

Any Nationals vs Padres preview has to note how Washington has been carried for much of the year by an above-average pitching staff which has propped up a surprisingly bad offense. Washington is 21st in runs scored, 23rd in on-base percentage, 26th in OPS and 29th in home runs. Other than Jesse Winker and CJ Abrams, the Nationals’ lineup just has not produced like it was expected to. Between the struggles of Keibert Ruiz and Meneses, Eddie Rosario and even Luis García Jr., Washington has struggled to convert hits and walks into runs.

A recent bright spot has been Thomas, who was dreadful to start the 2024 season after a breakout 28-home run campaign in 2023. The outfielder has a .898 OPS in June with five home runs and 18 RBIs. He has been a stabilizing force for an offense that is prone to prolonged outages because it doesn’t have much power or top-line run producers.

But, Thomas, Winker and Abrams can’t do it themselves so other guys will need to step up against the Padres’ formidable rotation. One area in which Washington thrives is in the ground game as the Nationals have stolen the third-most bases in the Majors. Expect the Nationals to push the envelope on the basepaths to try and manufacture some runs the old-fashioned way.

Take Padres Big

As usual, the MLB weather in San Diego isn’t much of a factor for this series as it’s pretty much always sunny and warm there. That bodes well for Waldron and the Padres whom you should back at +105 as -1.5 run favorites on the runline. You could take San Diego straight-up at -200 on the moneyline but there just isn’t much value in that pick even though the Padres against Corbin feels like a safe bet. Getting the value on the runline is smart.

Also, take the over eight runs (-110). Corbin gives up a ton of runs and the Padres’ shaky bullpen could be tagged late.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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