Weekly MLB Favorite / Underdog Report Hot Off The Press
Favorites Had Incredible Weekend, 30 Winners in 45 Games
Betting on Major League Baseball is a journey that can be a difficult road because there’s an improper emphasis on what a team did in April and used to determine winners in June.
We break down overall 2024 results but also put a bullseye on a club’s current performance to prepare bettors for who teams are today. Let’s get into our MLB weekly Faves & Dogs report.
Home Teams Dominate But Bettors Need To Be Careful
We know that home teams will win the majority of games every MLB season but over the last 30 days they have started to turn a profit which we know in baseball doesn’t always happen no matter how many games over .500 a team or trend is.
Over the last month, favorites are 235-166 (.586) but that hasn’t been enough to turn a profit with 7.41 units lost. Home favorites are a different story with a 158-98 (.617) record with a 5.61 unit profit. Who has the top home favorite been?
- The Philadelphia Phillies lead the pack with 11 winners in their last 12 MLB games, followed by the Seattle Mariners at 10-2 (+4.34) and the Milwaukee Brewers at 8-2 (+3.49).
As we know, there’s always the flip side to any positive trend, these are the teams to stay away from even as a home favorite.
The Seattle Mariners are just 4-7 (-4.23 units), closely followed by the Atlanta Braves with 4.02 units lost with a 6-7 record. The Chicago Cubs round out the bottom with a 5-6 record, costing bettors -3.20 units.
Now, we know we’re not going to wager on every -200 favorite that comes our way so let’s put a -150 filter on these trends to narrow down who should be on our card over the next week at a fair price.
- Over the last 30 days, -150 favorites or less are just 109-98 (.527) and -11.49 units in the red, indicating that finding reliable favorites is substantially more difficult.
These are the teams to zero in on over the next week. The Cleveland Guardians are 8-3 (+3.40) over their last 11 games as a reasonably priced favorite. The Milwaukee Brewers are 6-2 (2.79) followed closely by the Baltimore Orioles at 9-4 (+2.64).
The stay-away teams are the Chicago Cubs at 2-8 (-6.46), Houston Astros at 3-8 (-5.58), and Atlanta Braves who are 2-7 (-5.41). As you can see so much more goes into wagering than today’s current MLB standings. Let’s give 2024‘s overall numbers and see how they compare to recent form.
Finding The Sweet Spot For Bettors
Overall favorites in 2024 are 787-582 (.575) while home favorites are 554-404 (.578) -39.71 units. It’s a hard way to make a living on most nights knowing that a wager on a favorite will give you a 58% chance of winning but too many of those will result in a dried-up bankroll.
Road favorites are 229-176 (.565) but just 5.32 units to the negative. Let’s find that sweet spot for bettors to make this week profitable.
- Luckily this was easy to find with the range of +160 to +169 producing 19.21 units of profit behind a manageable 33-35 record.
This isn’t a surprise considering underdogs with this filter have turned a profit in three of the last four seasons with 44.20 units won. Simple enough, except you must be prepared for losses because that profit comes from a record of just 222-319 record (.410).
The teams at the top are the Washington Nationals (5-1, +7.28), Los Angeles Angels (4-1, +5.54), and the Pittsburgh Pirates (3-1, +3.98).
The Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, and Oakland Athletics combined 0-10 as a +160/+169 underdog. Throw those teams out and the trend becomes that much stronger.
Match-ups Are Often Overlooked
We were going to focus on something deep like implied MLB runs but we thought to keep it to something easier to understand with numbers that are easily accessible to bettors.
It’s incredible how close these numbers are but left-handers are 309-307 this season with a small profit of 0.34 units. Right-handers are 1060-1062 but -73.64 units in the red. We’re at a dead end here but when we break it down by MLB teams we find a few strong betting options.
Against right-handers, the Washington Nationals have won 27 of 47 but because they’ve cashed underdogs at an incredible rate, bettors would have profited 18.27 units.
- The Baltimore Orioles give us a team to wager on consistently with a 52-22 record against righties (+17.57), followed by the Kansas City Royals who are a surprising 42-29 (+11.89 units).
Against left-handers, the Cincinnati Reds are the leaders in 2024 with a 17-11 record at (+7.08).
They’re followed closely by the Philadelphia Phillies (19-8, +6.20) and the Milwaukee Brewers ar 12-6 (+5.94). That does it for our MLB weekly Faves & Dogs report, all the best as we start another week staring at the MLB live scores on our phones. At least that’s what we do.
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