2024 NBA Draft: Sportsbook Predictions For Top Ten Picks
Odds Are All Over The Place
While the 2024 NBA Draft is set to start on Wednesday night and wrap up with the second round on Thursday afternoon and may not be the most hyped iteration of all time; there is plenty of intrigue and speculation regarding who the top lottery picks will be and which teams they’ll be taken by. Usually, we have a very clear idea of the likely No. 1 overall pick but, this year, the Sportsbook Predictions for Draft Top 10 has not reached a consensus.
Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher is currently the favorite to be the first pick to the Atlanta Hawks but there are plenty of other names who have decent odds at having the honor to be taken first overall such as Donovan Clingan and Alex Sarr. Those guys are projected to be the three best NBA players from this draft but with so much uncertainty and no clear-cut can’t-miss star, you can certainly make value-based bets on guys to fall or rise more than expected.
Plenty of teams have been rumored to be shopping their picks in this “lighter” draft class which could also shake things up in a big way. The Hawks have been linked to Clingan and Sarr but, if they are fine with any of the top three players, they could try to trade down to No. 2 or No. 3 with Washington or Houston if those teams desperately want one of Risacher, Clingan or Sarr. The absence of a Victor Wembanyama-type obvious No. 1 really opens up the possibilities on the betting front.
Top Four Could Swing Based On What Houston Does
The Sportsbook Predictions for Draft Top 10 are a little tough to get a read on because they’re way more situation-based than on who is actually considered to be the better player. For example, people are pretty sure that Clingan won’t dip below No. 4 at the lowest. But, in terms of the mostly likely 1-2-3 pick combos, Riscacher/Sarr/Reed Sheppard is actually the favorite at -150 with Clingan/Sarr/Sheppard at +160, Risacher/Sarr/Clingan at +325 and Clingan/Sarr/Risacher at +450.
So, it appears those those four guys comprise the top four in terms of who the Vegas sportsbooks are expecting to come off the board. Right now, it feels like truly anything could happen early on in this draft so it could be a good idea to look into some of the less-likely top-three permutations to get some value and cover part of the board.
Again, with Atlanta, Washington, Houston, and San Antonio currently holding the top four picks, there is a definite possibility that a trade or two is made somewhere along the line. Right now, Risacher is -250 on the NBA odds to be the No. 1 overall pick while Sarr is -600 to be the No. 2 overall pick. Those look like relatively safe bets but one trade or unexpected pick could throw those numbers out of whack. The last minus-money favorite is Sheppard at No. 3 (-145) before the uncertainty of everything makes any later pick bet plus-money.
Rest Of Top Ten Is Up For Grabs
Beyond No. 3, it’s pretty much anyone’s guess as to what the Sportsbook Predictions for Draft Top 10Â think. Stephon Castle is +160 to go fourth overall with Sheppard at +350 in case he falls. Risacher is +450 and both Matas Buzelis and Clingan are +550. Buzelis is +125 to be the fifth pick with Cody Williams (+350) and Castle (+550) right behind him. Castle is highly thought of so it’ll be interesting to see where he lands and if he benefits from one of Risacher/Clingan/Sarr/Sheppard falling.
Castle and Buzelis are both +300 for the sixth pick and Dalton Knecht is +350. Interestingly, Cody Williams is down at +1200 for No. 6 but jumps back up to +400 (the lowest odds) for No. 7, shortly followed by Clingan (+450) and Ron Holland (+500). Even Knecht (+700), Buzelis, and Castle (both +750) are on the board there too.
If you want to make NBA picks and parlays on the draft, you could go a little off the board at No. 8 because that’s San Antonio’s second pick of the 1st round and the Spurs could do something weird with it. Devin Carter (+250) and Tidjane Salaun (+300) are considered the most likely selections there but it’s far enough down in the round that there could be more-valued guys slipping to that pick. The Spurs could also trade out of that spot.
Holland and Knecht (both +500), Rob Dillingham (+600), Carter (+650), and Nikola Topic (+750) are the candidates at No. 9 which looks to be a pretty even split for Memphis‘ pick. It’s tough to tell who actually may go there. Finally, we round out the top 10 with Utah and Knecht (+450), Williams (+500), Holland, Topic, and Dillingham (all +600) making up the possibilities. At that point, it’s anyone’s guess who will still even be on the board.
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