A’ja for MVP? Wilson Fueling Aces Surge
Mystics vs Aces WNBA Prediction Sees Value in Spread
The Washington Mystics visit the Las Vegas Aces Thursday (10 p.m. ET) at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
WNBA odds have Las Vegas as a whopping 16-point favorite and -1800 on the moneyline, with Washington +1000 to pull off the upset. It’s the biggest spread this season. Meanwhile, the projected total is 171.
Can Las Vegas take care of business? Read on as we break down both teams and give our Mystics vs Aces WNBA prediction in our game preview.
🏀 Mystics at Aces 🏀
⏰Day/Time: 📍Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena; Las Vegas
📺Streaming: MNMT; Prime Video
Mystics vs Aces Betting Trends
The Washington Mystics have covered in five straight games, running their record against the spread to 13-6-1. Washington has also been profitable for Over/Under bettors, going 11-9.
The Las Vegas Aces, meanwhile, are 7-10 ATS. However, they’ve covered in four of their last five games. They are 9-8 against the Over/Under.
That’s important to remember when analyzing our Mystics vs Aces WNBA prediction.
Subscribe below to get our Premium Insights!
Subscribe below to get our Premium Insights!
Injuries Deal Another Blow to Mystics
The Mystics have played better since their dismal 0-12 start, going 5-3 over their last eight games. They’re coming off Tuesday’s 82-80 win over Los Angeles in Shatori Walker-Kimbrough scored a team-high 17 points off the bench. The Mystics, 1.5-point underdogs, covered for the fifth straight game and ninth time in their last 10 games.
Washington is still only 5-15, the third-worst record in the WNBA. That makes their playoff chances (+700) extremely unlikely. Nevertheless, they’re at least showing signs of respectability.
Injuries remain Washington’s biggest obstacle. Brittney Sykes (foot), Karlie Samuelson (hand) and Shakira Austin (hip) are all out indefinitely, further crippling a roster that was already without Elena Delle Donne. The two-time MVP and seven-time All-Star is on an indefinite leave from basketball. Given the uncertainty, it is fair to wonder if Delle Donne has played her last game with the Mystics.
Adding to their woes, Stefanie Dolson is questionable for Thursday’s game with an illness. Dolson, a two-time All-Star, has fueled the Mystics’ recent surge. She’s scored in double-figures six straight games, including a season-high 23-point effort in last Saturday’s 88-77 loss to Las Vegas. She is shooting 50.6% from 3-point range, making a career-high 2.3 3s per game.
Washington set a franchise record for futility with 12 consecutive losses to open the season. The skid finally ended June 11 with an 87-68 win over Atlanta.
All’s Well in Vegas
Winners of five straight, the Aces are rediscovering their form as a title contender. The two-time defending WNBA champions are 11-6 and lead the league in scoring, averaging 87.8 points.
With +155 championship odds, they remain the WNBA’s team-to-beat. Similar to last season, New York (+185) is the only other team remotely close to them on the odds board. Minnesota and Connecticut are a distant third at +750, with Seattle rounding out the top five contenders at +1200.
No WNBA team has won three straight titles since the now-defunct Houston Comets won four in a row from 1997-00.
A’ja Wilson will have a big say in whether the Aces can match history. Wilson’s having a spectacular season, establishing herself as a -350 favorite to win her third MVP since 2020. She leads the league in scoring (27.0) and blocks (2.5) and ranks second in rebounding (11.0) behind Chicago’s Angel Reese (11.8). She has 13 25-point games, including a 28-point, nine-rebound performance in Tuesday’s 88-69 win over Indiana.
The Aces have been favored every game, including eight times by double-digits. They are just 3-5 ATS but 6-2 OU in those contests. Be sure to keep that in mind when assessing our Mystics vs Aces WNBA prediction.
Handicapping the Game
This is the second of three meetings between Washington and Las Vegas. The Aces won 88-77 last Saturday at Entertainment and Sports Arena, rallying from a six-point halftime deficit to outscore the Mystics 21-8 in the fourth quarter. The Mystics held Wilson to a season-low 11 points on 4-of-15 shooting but were no match defensively for Jackie Young (26 points) or Chelsea Gray (22).
Despite the loss, Washington covered as a 13-point underdog.
The Mystics have played better of late, but it’s unreasonable to expect them to stay even remotely close to Las Vegas without a healthy Dolson. Her availability is paramount.
Assuming she doesn’t play, the Aces may have no trouble covering as 16-point favorites.
For WNBA news, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
