Ohio State, Oregon Shaping Up as Big Ten Favorites
MSU, Purdue Projected for Lowest 2024 Big 10 Win Totals
The Big Ten will look significantly different to college football fans in 2024. The latest wave of conference realignment has Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington coming over from the now-defunct Pac 12.
As the offseason rolls along, here’s a look at the latest projected 2024 Big 10 win totals.
Illinois Fighting Illini
- Over 5.5: +106
- Under 5.5: -130
The Fighting Illini went 5-7 last season, failing to reach a bowl game for the seventh time in nine years. They are just 18-19 in the Bret Bielema era, with the high point coming in 2022 (8-5, lost in ReliaQuest Bowl).
More disappointment could be in store for the Fighting Illini, who must replace Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Jer’Zhan Newton as part of a revamped defense.
Indiana Hoosiers
- Over 5.5: +122
- Under 5.5: -150
Indiana brought in an established winner in Curt Cignetti. In five seasons at James Madison, Cignetti amassed a 52-9 record, including 31-4 in conference play. Most impressive is how he seamlessly handled the school’s transition to FBS competition.
If he comes even close to matching that success in Indiana, he’ll be a folk hero. The Hoosiers are 9-27 over the last three seasons.
Iowa Hawkeyes
- Over 7.5: -122
- Under 7.5: +100
Iowa went 10-4 last season, winning the Big Ten West. But the Hawkeyes ranked 129th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring offense, averaging only 15.4 points per game. They were shut out three times, including the Big Ten Championship against Michigan (26-0) and the Citrus Bowl against Tennessee (35-0).
Needing to improve, the Hawkeyes brought in a new offensive coordinator in Tim Lester, a former analyst with the Green Bay Packers.
No. 1 Cade McNamara is expected to be ready for summer workouts as he recovers from season-ending knee surgery.
Maryland Terrapins
- Over 6.5: -140
- Under 6.5: +114
Maryland has won bowl games each of the last three seasons under Mike Locksley, going a combined 23-16. But the Terrapins have big shoes to fill, needing to replace record-setting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa.
The schedule is a bit lighter, but uncertainty at quarterback creates some doubts.
Michigan Wolverines
- Over 9.5: +152
- Under 9.5: -192
Will Sherrone Moore have Michigan in a position to defend its national championship? A playoff appearance is the minimum expected of them, even with changes at head coach and quarterback.
Texas visits on Sept. 7, and there are also matchups at home with USC and Oregon before the regular season concludes Nov. 30 at Ohio State. Despite that daunting slate, the Wolverines share the second-highest projected 2024 Big 10 win total.
Michigan State Spartans
- Over 4.5: -154
- Under 4.5: +122
Expectations are low for first-year coach Jonathan Smith. Really, really low. Alongside Purdue, Michigan State is projected for the lowest 2024 Big 10 win total on the heels of a 4-8 finish.
Smith comes over from Oregon State. He went 34-35 over six seasons at his alma mater, but 18-7 since the start of 2022.
After an unceremonious end to Mel Tucker’s tenure, stability is needed.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Over 5.5: +110
- Under 5.5: -142
On the heels of back-to-back nine-win seasons, Minnesota took a slight step back in 2023. Still, the Golden Gophers were good enough to get back to a bowl, defeating Bowling Green 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl to cap a 6-7 campaign.
P.J. Fleck’s team will need to overcome a treacherous schedule to avoid more regression. Their first four Big Ten games (vs Iowa, at Michigan, vs USC, at UCLA) may define their season.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Over 7.5: +120
- Under 7.5: -148
Matt Rhule has the Cornhuskers trending in the right direction. Though they went 5-7 last season, five of the losses came by just one score.
There’s a lot of buzz around freshman Dylan Raiola, the top-ranked prospect in the 2024 class. His adjustment will be one of the Big Ten’s biggest storylines.
Nebraska hasn’t won more than five games since 2016 when they finished 9-4 under Mike Riley.
Northwestern Wildcats
- Over 5.5: +168
- Under 5.5: -210
Northwestern was one of the biggest surprises in college football last season. After taking over for Pat Fitzgerald late last summer, David Braun led the Wildcats to an 8-5 record, including a 14-7 victory over Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Braun earned Big Ten Coach of the Year honors and parlayed his interim into the full-time job.
Can he carry that momentum in 2024? The Wildcats are averaging just 4.4 wins over the last five seasons.
Bringing in an experienced quarterback like Mike Wright — who previously played at Mississippi State and Vanderbilt — should help.
Ohio State Buckeyes
- Over 10.5: -150
- Under 10.5: +120
It is an NCAA title or bust for Ohio State. The perennially dominant Buckeyes (+425) have the second-highest championship odds in college football behind Georgia (+320).
The Buckeyes brought in Kansas State transfer Will Howard to play quarterback but will need to replace Biletnikoff Trophy winner Marvin Harrison Jr. Will that hold them back?
The Buckeyes have won double-digit games in 11 of the last 12 seasons, except for the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.
Oregon Ducks
- Over 10.5: +100
- Under 10.5: -122
Big things are in store for Oregon. The Ducks are projected for 10.5 wins, matching Ohio State for most in the Big Ten, and have the fourth-highest NCAA national championship odds at +850 behind Georgia (+320), Ohio State (+425) and Texas (+750).
The Ducks are loaded on both the offensive and defensive lines, meaning they should be able to adjust to the more physical brand of play in the Big Ten.
Their Oct. 12 date with Ohio State at Autzen Stadium will be must-see TV.
Penn State Nittany Lions
- Over 9.5: -172
- Under 9.5: +140
Penn State has had double-digit wins each of the last two seasons. It brings back quarterback Drew Allar, who will need to perform better against top competition to match or even surpass expectations.
In last season’s 24-15 loss to Michigan, Allar completed just 10 of 22 passes for 70 yards.
Purdue Boilermakers
- Over 4.5: +142
- Under 4.5: -178
Purdue was 4-8 in Ryan Walters’ first season, missing a bowl game for the first time since 2020. Things remain bleak around the program, with the Boilermakers projected for a conference-low 4.5 wins.
A tough schedule, which includes a visit from Notre Dame in non-conference play (Sept. 14), could make for another difficult year.
Keep that in mind when making your NCAAF picks and parlays.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Over 6.5: +128
- Under 6.5: -158
The long climb back to respectability continues under Greg Schiano. Rutgers’ seven wins last season were its most since 2014 (8-5). The Scarlet Knights capped their season with a 31-24 victory over Miami in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis will take over at quarterback, replacing Gavin Wimsatt.
UCLA Bruins
- Over 5.5: -110
- Under 5.5: -110
Former NFL running back DeShaun Foster takes over coaching duties at his alma mater, replacing Chip Kelly. The Bruins went 8-5 in 2023 and are 32-25 over the last five seasons, but regression is expected as they transition to the Big Ten.
USC Trojans
- Over 7.5: +100
- Under 7.5: -122
Head coach Lincoln Riley faces one of the most daunting tasks in college football, needing to replace Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams. Former backup Miller Moss — who starred in Williams’ place in last year’s Holiday Bowl against Louisville — may have the inside track on the starting job.
USC opens Sept. 1 against LSU in Las Vegas, before visiting Michigan a few weeks later on Sept. 21. We should know a lot about the Trojans early.
Washington Huskies
- Over 7.5: +118
- Under 7.5: -144
After reaching the national championship game, the Huskies must replace their head coach (Kalen DeBoer), quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.), and No. 1 receiver (Rome Odunze).
The Huskies went 14-1 last season, but it’s fair to expect a slight step back in the NCAAF standings under Jedd Fisch.
Wisconsin Badgers
- Over 6.5: -144
- Under 6.5: +118
A model of consistency, Wisconsin has appeared in a bowl in 22 consecutive seasons. Luke Fickell’s first season at the helm culminated with a 35-31 loss to LSU in the ReliaQuest Bowl, leaving the Badgers at 7-6.
For free NCAAF picks today, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
