2024 AFC West Division Odds: Can Anyone Unseat the Chiefs?
Harbaugh or No Harbaugh, KC Favored to Win 9th Division Title!
The AFC West is still trying to catch up to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Aside from its back-to-back Super Bowl titles, three championships and four title-game appearances over the past five seasons, KC has also won its division eight straight seasons.
The Chiefs dynasty has coincided with a downturn for each of its divisional rivals. KC has won the West by at least two games in five consecutive years and has done so by at least four games in four of those seasons.
Still, there is reason to think 2024 could be different, especially after KC only won 11 games last season — its fewest since 2015.
Here’s a look at the preseason 2024 AFC West division odds.
THE FAVORITE
Kansas City Chiefs (-225)
What more can be said about the Chiefs? They are a well-deserved favorite since they are seeking their ninth consecutive division crown and still has two-time AP MVP Patrick Mahomes calling the shots.
Mahomes’ top weapon, Travis Kelce, expects to return healthy after he missed a pair of NFL games with a cranky knee. Plus, Isiah Pacheco is one of the angriest runners in the NFL, which led him to 1,179 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns in 2023.
Still, the Chiefs are going to get caught at some point, especially with Mahomes, Kelce and Pacheco covering for their inefficient offense, which was just 15th in points per game last year (21.8).
Even though it has won consecutive Super Bowls, KC’s offense is still trying to account for Tyreek Hill’s departure — Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is the latest free-agent addition who will be expected to serve as the No. 1 wide receiver and second option to Kelce.
That receiving corps has been suspect and could be again, especially since second-year wideout Rashee Rice will likely be disciplined since he is facing multiple felony charges after a traffic incident in Texas.
Still, the Chiefs will be the champs until someone knocks them off, especially in the AFC West, and as long as Mahomes, Kelce and coach Andy Reid are calling the shots. Plus, KC’s defense is unheralded, led by game-wrecking defensive linemen Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, who each led the team with 10.5 sacks in 2023.
The -225 odds carry a 69.2% implied probability of KC winning the division again, which means it isn’t one of the best NFL bets to consider ahead of the upcoming season.
TOP CONTENDER
Los Angeles Chargers (+300)
The Chargers haven’t won a playoff game in six years. Yet, like the Chiefs, they will enter the season with a coach that guided his NFL team to a championship this past winter..
LA hired Jim Harbaugh to replace Brandon Staley and try to work his quarterback magic with fifth-year starter Justin Herbert.
The Chargers have offensive weapons galore, namely running backs Gus Edwards and J.K Dobbins and receivers Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston and D.J. Chark, who came over from the Carolina Panthers in free agency.
The Chargers defense also is star-laden, led by safety Derwin James and tandem gamewrecking edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
Despite the star-caliber talent, the Chargers haven’t found a way to put it all together. They’ve been a trendy Super Bowl pick each of the past two seasons yet only made the NFL playoffs in 2023 — famously blowing a 27-0 first-half lead in their 31-30 wild-card round loss to the Jaguars in Staley’s lone playoff game.
But with Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers must think they have a shot. Aside from his national championship and three straight College Football Playoff appearances at Michigan, Harbaugh coached the 49ers to three straight NFC Championship Games and Super Bowl 47 in his four NFL seasons in the Bay Area.
The 2024 season may be early for LA to make the leap. But it’s safe to say it won’t be long before the Chargers are challenging the Chiefs for the West crown.
NEXT IN LINE
Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)
The Raiders, like the Chargers, have a different coach than they started with in 2023. But Antonio Pierce did enough to win over Las Vegas owner Mark Davis, going 5-4 after replacing Josh McDaniels last November.
Las Vegas had a plus-62 point differential and went 7-1-1 in NFL picks against the spread under Pierce despite only finishing a game over .500 under the former NFL linebacker.
But between the Raiders galvanizing under Pierce and the addition of quarterback Gardner Minshew II — who will compete with incumbent Aidan O’Connell for the starting job — fans are excited for a potential upstart campaign in the desert.
As long as either quarterback can get the ball to the Raiders’ surplus of weapons, led by Davante Adams and tandem first-round-drafted tight ends Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers, their offense should put up points.
Las Vegas finished with a plus-1 point differential and had the 23rd-ranked offense — though it averaged 20.3 points per game in O’Connell’s 10 starts in 2023.
The Raiders have their own game wrecker spearheading their defense in end Maxx Crosby, who led them with 14.5 sacks.
Crosby is one of the most dominant pass rushers, and he and middle linebacker Robert Spillane, who finished 10th in the NFL in tackles (148) will spearhead a unit that was ninth in points-against per game (19.5) last NFL season.
Even when times are good, there’s always drama involving the Raiders. The quarterback controversy, along with how Alexander Mattison will do leading the backfield, will be huge storylines in the preseason, along with how Pierce will do in his first full season as an NFL coach.
They could be an interesting dark horse to make the playoffs. But they probably won’t sniff the AFC West crown.
LONGSHOT
Denver Broncos (+1500)
The Russell Wilson experiment officially didn’t work in Denver, since coach Sean Payton won that power struggle since he is still in the Mile High City and his former quarterback is a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Still, the Wilson drama clouded the fact Denver actually finished tied for second place in the division last season.
Denver’s defense was not as bad as stats would indicate — its 70-20 outlier drubbing at Miami where it allowed 726 yards in Week 3 threw off its NFL defensive rankings.
But with limited NFL draft capital after giving up first-round picks in consecutive seasons to acquire Wilson and Payton, the Broncos may take some lumps in 2024, especially as they try to work in first-round pick, quarterback Bo Nix.
Denver also traded No. 2 receiver Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland in March, leaving either Nix, Zach Wilson or Jarrett Stidham with limited weapons on offense.
The Broncos did hold the Chiefs offense to 28 points in their two meetings last season. Plus, there are few coaches better equipped to handle young QBs than Payton, who helped develop Tony Romo and resuscitated Drew Brees’ career in New Orleans.
But if you’re going to be following NFL scores for today in 2024, this might be a long year in Denver.
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