2024 Michael Pittman Jr Season Odds: More Growth from Indy’s No. 1?
Star Colts receiver could get big boost with a full season of Anthony Richardson at QB
The Indianapolis Colts look like an intriguing dark horse in the loaded AFC.
Despite a pair of devastating injuries to rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson that cost him 13 games, and a defense that ranked 28th in points-against per game, all the Colts had to do was defeat the Houston Texans at home to win the AFC South a season ago.
But the Colts’ tumultuous 2023 is behind them, and even with Richardson’s injuries, the contract drama with Jonathan Taylor, and a porous defense, No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr has been arguably the most consistent player on the Indianapolis roster.
Pittman is poised to have another big year in Richardson’s second season, especially if the quarterback remains healthy. Richardson’s health is a key factor in why receiving-yards prop is 950.5 at -110 odds per DraftKings.
Let’s take a look at Michael Pittman Jr.’s season odds for the 2024 campaign.
2023 Recap
Despite playing with both Richardson and Minshew, and missing roughly 1.5 games due to injury, Pittman had his best NFL season to date in 2023. He finished fifth in the NFL in receptions (109) and set a career high in both catches and yards (1,152) in his fourth year in the league.
Pittman is the consummate possession receiver, proven by his 10.9 yards-per-reception average over his career. His 1.9% drop rate was tied for third-best among receivers with at least 100 targets, and Pittman reeled in about 70% of his targets in 2023, no small feat considering the Colts finished 27th in the NFL in team completion% (61.8).
But all that has not translated into points for his team. Despite putting up a 75-yard touchdown against the Browns, the longest play of Pittman’s career, he had just four touchdown receptions in 2023 and has only scored 15 TDs in his four-season career — a main factor why Michael Pittman Jr season odds are -110 for Over/Under 5.5 touchdowns.
Indianapolis did have only 18 passing touchdowns in 2023, tied for eighth-fewest in the NFL. Pittman’s four NFL scores actually led Indianapolis receivers, since it was one more than tight end Mo-Alie Cox, and it was tied for the fewest number of receiving TDs of any team leader.
Health Matters
The bond between Richardson and Pittman was clear from the start.
Despite the fact Richardson averaged just 144.3 yards per game and completed just 59.5% of his passes over his four starts, Pittman averaged 55 yards per game in the QB’s outings, including an eight-catch, 97-yard, one-touchdown outing in Indy’s season opener vs the Jaguars.
The biggest issue is whether Richardson will be able to remain upright for a 16-game season. Coach Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter put Richardson in harm’s way, which is why he missed 13 games with a concussion and shoulder injury.
But the Colts also expect to have a better backup quarterback in 2024 in reigning Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco. Flacco, who guided the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs after starter Deshaun Watson went down midseason, nearly had as many touchdowns in five starts (13) as Minshew had in 13 games on the Indianapolis Colts schedule a year ago (15).
Still, Richardson’s health and development as a passer will be major determinants in how the Colts season goes. If he misses the majority of the season again, Richardson may start getting labeled as brittle, but if he completes fewer than 60% of his passes again, the narrative may shift to whether he was worth the No. 4 overall pick in 2023.
Sharing the Wealth
The Colts got Richardson some help at the wide receiver position by drafting Adonai Mitchell in the second round. Mitchell, like Pittman, is 6-4 and was used as a possession receiver in his lone season at Texas — he transferred to Austin after winning two national championships with the University of Georgia.
Still, Mitchell’s arrival could take the heat off Pittman, burner Josh Downs and slot receiver Alec Pierce, the latter of whom finished Nos. 2-3 in receiving yards (771, 514). Add Cox, who is a red-zone threat, and the running threats of Richardson, Taylor and change-of-pace back Trey Sermon, and Indy has all the makings of a dynamic offense.
Though their Super Bowl odds are long at +6000, taking the Colts to win the AFC South at +310 or make the playoffs at +140 are fascinating projections.
Still, his numbers may take a hit with all that firepower, which is why Michael Pittman’s season odds projects a 200-yard drop off in 2024. The touchdown prop projects him to equal or surpass his career high for touchdowns of 6, which he set in 2021.
The threat of other options could help Pittman reach six TDs or more, as well as Richardson’s emergence as a passer. This could be Pittman’s most effective season yet.
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