Can Prescott Win Back-to-Back Passing Titles
2024 Passing TD Leader Future Odds: Mahomes vs Prescott
It’s no surprise to see Patrick Mahomes favored to throw more touchdowns than anybody else in the 2024 NFL season. Whether that’s warranted or not is another question.
The Chiefs became a slightly different team in 2023 but still won the Super Bowl. The new-look Kansas City offense saw fewer passes and more reliance on the defense. That opened the door for Dak Prescott to lead in the NFL in passing TDs. The 2024 passing TD leader future odds have Prescott listed at No. 2 in the odds.
The list of talented quarterbacks who were injured last season and taken out of contention for the title was pretty extensive. Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray are among them.
Staying healthy for the entire season could be enough to put them in the mix. A look at the current 2024 passing TD leader future odds for the top contenders:
Patrick Mahomes
+600
Mahomes led the NFL in passing TDs in 2022 when he threw for 41 scores but dropped off dramatically. Last season, Mahomes threw for just 27 TDs and 4,183 yards. He passed for 5,250 yards in 2022. His interceptions also went up last season despite throwing 50 fewer passes.
The Chiefs didn’t suddenly find a rushing game last season. The team rushed for fewer yards than in 2022. Kansas City played field position more and let its defense do some work. How Kansas City approaches 2024 will determine what type of stats Mahomes puts up.
The 2022 version of Mahomes would lead the league in passing TDs this year. If the Chiefs play the same way they did last year, Mahomes is probably looking at a 30-TD season tops. Signs in the offseason signal Kansas City wants more big passing plays this season.
The Chiefs signed Marquise Brown and drafted speedster Xavier Worthy in the first round. That says plenty about the team intentions. If the receivers do a better job of catching the football this year, Mahomes could bounce back in a big way. He’s a worthwhile wager at +600.
Dak Prescott
+800
In the last three seasons Prescott has managed to stay healthy, he’s thrown for at least 30 touchdowns. Staying healthy isn’t an easy thing for NFL quarterbacks these days. There’s no denying Prescott’s talent, which shines even more due to Dallas’ lack of a running game.
After rushing for 2,298 yards and 24 TDs in 2022, the Cowboys had just 1,920 yards and 14 TDs last year. That helps Prescott’s stats but doesn’t necessarily help the team win games.
Prescott has to be given some consideration here. He’d probably be happier not to win it, as that would mean the Cowboys are more of a balanced team, which will help with the straight-up victories, along with wins for Dallas fans in their NFL picks and parlays.
Joe Burrow
+1000
Burrow threw for 35 touchdowns in 2022, which put in a tie for second with Josh Allen. After missing quite a bit of time last season, he’s ready to start slinging the ball around in 2024. The Bengals aren’t a great rushing team, which helps Burrow get more passing attempts.
Cincinnati plays in a tough division, so the passing opportunities should be there. The offensive line has to do its part. The Bengals allowed too many sacks last season and Burrow doesn’t need to take a constant beating.
Josh Allen – Brock Purdy 
+1100
The 2024 passing TD leader future odds have both Allen and Purdy at odds of +1100. You can make a case for both. You can probably make a stronger case why each won’t lead the league in passing TDs. The Bills underwent some changes in receiver, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving.
They combined for 15 TD receptions and more than 1,900 receiving yards. Replacing them won’t be easy. The Bills run the ball often, which also won’t help Allen in the stat department.
Purdy is in the same situation, as San Francisco likes to run the ball. You can’t blame them when you have Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. Purdy threw nearly 150 fewer passes than Prescott last season but still had 31 TD tosses.
The 49ers are unlikely to change what has been working for them. Purdy is tied with Lamar Jackson in the NFL MVP race, which is the award he would rather win.
C.J. Stroud – Kirk Cousins 
+1300
Stroud looks to build on his rookie season and Diggs landed in Houston, giving him one more key target. The Texans also signed Joe Mixon, who is solid coming out of the backfield but isn’t going to get you many receiving touchdowns.
Houston may look to throw a bit more in 2024, but will also be running the ball more in the fourth quarter if they’re ahead.
Cousins was solid in Minnesota but took the big money to move to Atlanta. He’s coming back from a season that saw him play just eight NFL games. He did throw 18 TDs in those games, so he still can get the job done.
Atlanta doesn’t have the same caliber of wide receivers as Minnesota, however. The Falcons wideouts combined for 1,650 receiving yards and four touchdowns last season.
Jared Goff
+1400
The 2024 passing TD leader’s future odds on Goff aren’t that bad. Goff and Washington’s Sam Howell were the only two QBs to attempt more than 600 passes last season.
Goff finished with 30 TD passes and the Lions can score. Detroit also has a couple of talented running backs, which could limit the number of short TD passes Goff attempts. It looks to be a case of Goff finishing near the top of the leaderboard, but not quite on top.
Jordan Love – Tua Tagovailoa 
+1700
Love threw for 32 touchdowns last year, which was second in the league. Tagovailoa had 29 TD passes, as Miami tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns.
Neither NFL team runs the ball too much and both QBs have an outside shot at generous odds. There are worse bets you can make, but they are semi-long shots for a reason.
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