Falcons NFC South’s Team to Beat with Kirk Cousins
Falcons Priced -105 in 2024 NFC South Division Odds
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continued their reign atop the NFC South last season, claiming their third straight division title by way of a tiebreaker.
With a 9-8 record, the Buccaneers didn’t have the qualities needed to win a Super Bowl, as they did three years earlier with Tom Brady. Yet they still managed to reach the divisional round of the NFC playoffs.
The division is shaping up to be competitive again, with Atlanta separating itself as a -105 favorite after adding Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is next in line at +295. Both are NFL teams hoping to have a breakout season.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the 2024 NFC South Division odds.
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- Atlanta Falcons (-105)
Atlanta, the 2024 NFC South Division odds favorite, addressed its biggest weakness in the offseason, signing Kirk Cousins to a $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. Even off a torn Achilles, the four-time Pro Bowler is a substantial upgrade at quarterback over the likes of Desmond Ridder (traded to Arizona in March) and Taylor Heinicke.
Former head coach Arthur Smith was criticized for his misuse of Atlanta’s playmakers, including running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts.
The Falcons went 7-10 and missed the playoffs in all three of Smith’s seasons.
It’s reasonable to expect them to fare better under Raheem Morris, who brought along some familiar faces with him from the Rams, including offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Projected for 9.5 wins, the Falcons have the sixth-shortest odds to win the NFC at +1100.
TOP CONTENDER
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+295)
The Buccaneers were one of the NFL’s biggest surprises in 2023, overcoming +800 odds to win the NFC South at 9-8. They reached the divisional round, falling 31-23 to Detroit.
Baker Mayfield enjoyed a renaissance, passing for over 4,000 yards and a career-high 28 touchdowns. The former No. 1 overall pick was then rewarded this offseason with a $115 million extension, including $50 million guaranteed.
With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay has the playmakers needed to put together another strong season. The Buccaneers also used a third-round draft pick on former Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan.
Barring regression from Mayfield, who is averaging 12.3 interceptions over his first six seasons, the Buccaneers should post similar results. They are projected for 8.5 wins.
NEXT IN LINE
- New Orleans Saints (+330)
Derek Carr had a decent year statistically (3,878 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT), but given his age (33) and contract ($150 million, $60 million guaranteed), New Orleans will be on the hunt for a new quarterback sooner than later. That uncertainty doesn’t bode well, as evidenced by their 2024 NFC South Division odds.
The Saints finished 9-8 largely on the strength of their defense, which ranked among the NFL’s best in scoring (19.2 points allowed per game). They used a second-round draft pick on cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, pairing him with Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore.
They also signed defensive end Chase Young, who’s been slowed by injuries since his strong rookie season with Washington in 2020 (7.5 sacks).
Oddsmakers expect some regression, pegging the Saints for 7.5 wins.
LONGSHOT
- Carolina Panthers (+1100)
On the heels of a 2-15 finish (league-worst 4-11-2 ATS), another long season is in store for Carolina. The Panthers are projected for only 5.5 wins, matching the second-fewest in the NFL ahead of New England (4.5). They are also +550 longshots to make the NFC playoffs and have the most extreme Super Bowl odds of any team at +25000.
New head coach Dave Canales did wonders with Mayfield in Tampa Bay, and now gets to try his hand with Bryce Young. The former Alabama star looked overwhelmed at times as a rookie, throwing just 11 touchdowns in 16 games for a quarterback rating of 73.7.
The Panthers ranked last in the league in total offense, averaging only 13.9 points per game.
The Panthers made several tweaks on defense this offseason, signing former Pro Bowl linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and linebacker D.J. Wonnum. But they also traded their best pass-rusher in Brian Burns.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, the Panthers are unlikely to sniff the playoffs.
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