2024 Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup Odds
History's Against Oilers, 0-2 Hole Against Florida, but Cup Final Still far From Over
History suggests the Edmonton Oilers are up against a wall in the Stanley Cup Final.
Not only is Edmonton behind 2-0 to the Florida Panthers in the best-of-7 series, but it has just one goal and a minus-6 goal differential through the first two games.
Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard each has just one point, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman have zero and stay-at-home defenseman Mattias Ekholm scored its lone goal.
We could keep going on about Edmonton’s relative futility through two NHL games, but perhaps the most important figure going against it is the fact that only five of 54 teams that have trailed 2-0 in the Cup Final have rallied to raise Lord Stanley’s Cup.
Still, the series is far from over, especially as it heads to Edmonton for Game 3. Here’s a look at the 2024 Oilers Stanley Cup odds and whether there’s value to betting them at this point.
History Against Edmonton
Edmonton is facing long NHL odds. The Oilers are close to a +360 underdog, with their longest Cup odds coming at Caesars Sportsbook where they are +380.
The +380 odds indicate about a 20% implied probability of Edmonton reigning as Cup champion. Yet, history suggests that is even low. Aside from the fact only 9.25% of all teams to trail 2-0 have rallied to win the Cup, just three Stanley Cup winners have fallen down 2-0 on the road in 42 attempts.
It’s not that the Oilers can’t rally or that that type of hole hasn’t been crawled out of in recent memory. The last club to turn around an 0-2 hole was the 2011 Boston Bruins, who roared back to defeat the Vancouver Canucks in seven games, and the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins also rallied from that deficit to top the Detroit Red Wings in seven.
Edmonton has won just one of its previous 10 series in which it has fallen behind 2-0. In 2006 the Oilers trailed by that series score in the second round against San Jose before roaring back to the final four games and claim the series in six.
The Oilers also trailed 2-0, and 3-1, in the Cup Final that year against the Carolina Hurricanes but rebounded to force a Game 7 in Raleigh. However, the Hurricanes won 3-2 in the do-or-die game to claim their first championship.
An Unfortunate Cause of Optimism
Edmonton has been thoroughly dominated through two games, but it has reason to believe it can rally if Florida captain and Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov can’t play.
Barkov left with 9:28 remaining in Game 2 with an upper-body injury after Draisaitl launched himself into the Panthers captain and did not return. Draisaitl was not fined or suspended but was given a penalty for roughing, and Panthers forward Evan Rodrigues scored on the subsequent power play, giving them a 3-1 advantage late.
Barkov practiced Wednesday and is officially listed as questionable for Game 3. Still, Florida coach Paul Maurice said in his post-game availability “I wasn’t holding him back,” meaning Barkov wasn’t available to play the rest of Game 2 — you can read your own conclusions into what that means.
It is one thing for Florida to hang on with a two-goal lead over 10 minutes, but it’s much different to try and slow McDavid, Draisaitl and the high-octane Oilers without Barkov over a full game — especially in Edmonton where Maurice won’t have the benefit of last change. Maurice surely realizes that, which is why his postgame tone was somber even though Florida won Game 2.
Plus, Barkov shares the team lead in points (19) in the playoffs and plays in all situations — 5-on-5, power play and killing penalties. If he misses any significant length of time, the door opens up for Edmonton to rally.
Holding Serve Crucial
There’s an adage in sports that a team shouldn’t truly worry in a playoff series until it loses a home game. Despite the fact history is against the Oilers, they can view their 0-2 hole as Florida holding serve on home ice.
Game 3 will be back at Rogers Place in Edmonton, where the Oilers statistics swing back in their favor. Edmonton is 6-3 on home ice in the postseason and has won four of their past five games there.
The Oilers are averaging four goals per game and their power play is firing at 38.5% in the playoffs at Rogers Place. Plus, Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner has even been better at home this season.
Skinner had a 23-9 record against the moneyline at Rogers Place and sports a .913 save % and 2.49 goals-against average, which were far superior to his road numbers (.894 save%, 2.80 GAA).
The Oilers will almost certainly tell whoever will listen they only need to win one game to put the pressure back on the Panthers, and that’s true.
Game 3 is a must-win for Edmonton since those that follow probably know only one of 28 hockey teams to fall behind 3-0 in the Cup Final have rebounded to win (1942 Maple Leafs).
Conclusion
Those that follow NHL scores are surely aware there has not been a Stanley Cup Final sweep in 26 years when the Detroit Red Wings crushed the Washington Capitals in four straight in 1998.
- The team trailing 2-0 is 7-3 in Cup Final Game 3’s over the past 10 situations where that happened. So look for the Oilers to find their game in Edmonton.
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