2024 NHL Draft Odds: Celebrating Celebrini
Hobey Baker winner a lock to go first to San Jose; Other picks up in the air
The 2024 NHL Draft stands to be the Macklin Celebrini show.
The Boston University rising sophomore and reigning Hobey Baker Trophy winner is as solid a lock as there is to be picked first overall, a selection won by the San Jose Sharks at the NHL Draft Lottery in May.
Celebrini had -20000 odds to be chosen with the No. 1 pick in the first round Friday before DraftKings took those odds off the board Tuesday. But after Celebrini is inevitably picked, there is a relatively wide open race for Nos. 2-5.
Here’s a look at the 2024 NHL Draft odds as the first round draws near.
2024 NHL Draft Information
📍Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
⏰Day/Time:
📺Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Viva Las Vegas
Now that the Florida Panthers have finally won the Stanley Cup, the hockey world is descending on Las Vegas for a week of events. The NHL Awards will take place Thursday, and then Celebrini and the draft will take centerstage at Sphere.
No executives ever miss the draft, but even fewer high-profile decision makers will miss the event when it’s in the self-proclaimed Entertainment Capital of the World.
So there should be trades, especially Friday night, and with trades will come a slew of unpredictable events. That may be why the odds after Celebrini are all over the map, especially since the 2024 draft isn’t perceived as particularly deep.
The lack of depth in the 2024 class coincides with a down year for the U.S. National Team Development Program. A year after 49 Americans were chosen from 14 states, and six U.S.-born players from the NTDP were picked in the first round, the odds are strongly in favor of Under 4.5 U.S.-born players being picked over the first 32 selections.
Over 4.5 Americans picked have +185 2024 NHL Draft odds, or a 35% implied probability, which leaves four or fewer U.S. players sitting at -230, or about 66%.
Of course, stranger things have happened.
Logjam Starts at No. 3
The NHL Draft isn’t necessarily like the other drafts since teams almost universally seek out the best-available player rather than targeting needs — since only the top handful of picks open their careers in the same year they were drafted.
Celebrini is a lock to go No. 1 and start the 2024-25 season with the Sharks and is expected to light up NHL scoreboard for years to come. Following Celebrini, Artyom Levshunov is an overwhelming -250 favorite to get picked second by the Chicago Blackhawks.
But after that, the intrigue begins. Anton Silayev has the shortest 2024 NHL Draft odds to go third at +125, with Levshunov having the second-shortest odds. But Pat Verbeek and the Anaheim Ducks have gone off the board with high picks in the past, notably when they chose Leo Carlsson second last year ahead of Hobey Baker winner Adam Fantilli.
Silayev’s plus-money odds are especially interesting since Cayden Lindstrom has -170 odds of getting picked fourth by the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Ivan Demidov is projected to go fifth to the Montreal Canadiens, with +170 odds. Lindstrom and Demidov could flip though, since each has the second-shortest compared to the other for Nos. 4 and 5, per DraftKings.
Goalie or No Goalie?
Goaltending may be the most important position but don’t expect teams to draft for it.
Only 12 goalies have been NHL draft picks chosen in the first round since 2006, and no more than two in the first round have been chosen in any single year. Thus, the odds of a goalie being chosen in the first round is +1000.
For goalies to be chosen in the first round, typically there needs to be a can’t-miss prospect like Andrei Vasilevskiy (No. 19 in 2012) or Jake Oettinger (No. 26 in 2017). NHL Central Scouting can’t even agree on who the top goaltending prospect in the draft is, since Mikhail Yegorov is ranked first despite sitting fourth on the league’s scouting list of North American netminders at the midterm rankings.
Skaters are easier to develop, and high-end centers and defensemen are the hardest to find. Plus, teams need a more plentiful supply of game-breaking skill players.
Thus, if you’re looking for an NHL expert picks don’t expect a goalie to be chosen until Saturday.
For NHL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
