Florida Can Push Edmonton to Brink of Elimination

The Florida Panthers can move within one win of the Stanley Cup when they take on the Edmonton Oilers in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final on Thursday at Rogers Place. The Panthers vs Oilers puckline odds have Edmonton at -1.5 (+200) with Florida at +1.5 (-245). Given these lines, Edmonton’s may be the shrewd wager.

Led by two goals from Evan Rodrigues, and another outstanding performance from goalie Sergei Bobrovsky (18 saves), Florida claimed a 4-1 win in Game 2 for its second straight three-goal win. Each of Rodrigues’ goals came in the third period, and defensemen Niko Mikkola and Aaron Ekblad each also scored for the Panthers.

Mattias Ekholm scored Edmonton’s lone goal, and Stuart Skinner kept Edmonton in it with 25 saves. Ekholm’s first-period tally was Edmonton’s lone goal of the series, and Oilers captain Connor McDavid has just one point and tandem superstar Leon Draisaitl has been held off the scoresheet through two games.

Teams that lose the first two games rarely go on to win the Stanley Cup Final since they have won just five of 54 Stanley Cup Final series all-time. Still, Edmonton has a chance to get back into the series with a Game 3 win.

Here’s a look at the Panthers vs Oilers puckline odds and more as the series moves north of the border to Edmonton.

Oilers Favored

The Panthers may be an overwhelming favorite at -450 Stanley Cup odds, but for the first time all series Edmonton will have shorter moneyline odds in a game.

The Oilers will have a few things going for them as they head back to Alberta. First, home has been where the heart is for Edmonton since it is 6-3 at Rogers Place in the postseason with a +9 goal differential and four wins in its past five.

Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch will be able to get McDavid and Draisaitl favorable matchups away from Florida’s dominant shutdown unit since he’ll have the last change.

Draisaitl, who had 106 regular-season points and is tied with teammate Evan Bouchard for second-most playoff points (28) behind only McDavid’s 31, suddenly has been held pointless in four of Edmonton’s past seven games.

But that group should be able to get uncorked. Florida’s No. 1 center Aleksander Barkov may be unable to play. He left the game midway through the third period after taking a high hit from Draisaitl, who was assessed a minor penalty for roughing and did not return.

Aleksander Barkov has not only shut down Edmonton’s high-flying offense but has produced offensively too. Barkov shares the team lead with 19 playoff points and has two assists in the series, both in Game 1.

The Panthers withstood the Barkov injury over the final 9:28 and even scored on the ensuing power play — the first power-play goal of the series and first against Edmonton in 35 PKs dating back to the second round.

But asking Florida to win a road game without its captain and best player is a tall order, especially since the Oilers will be desperate and in Edmonton.

Over Worth Considering

If you’ve been monitoring NHL scores today, you know the Under has been a lock in Panthers games — and even for those featuring the Edmonton Oilers.

But with the Over odds longer than the Under for the first time in the series, and the series headed back to the exceptional ice in Edmonton, it’s worth taking a shot on a high-scoring Game 3.

The Oilers are averaging four goals per game on home ice in nine playoff games. The Over has hit in seven of their nine games at Rogers Place this season.

The Panthers have been stingy on the road since they have allowed just 2.25 goals-against per game away from Sunrise. But if Barkov is unable to go in Game 3 that would be a big void left for Florida defensively, plus Sergei Bobrovsky’s .910 road save% and 2.19 all-situation goals-saved above average are inferior to his overall postseason marks (.916, 4.76.)

• The betting handle on the Over has exceeded that on the Under in the first two games. But it is worth taking your swing with the -105 odds at least until those odds shorten.

Charles Barkley drops an accidental F-bomb in an interview with Sportsnet at Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final.
“(Sergei) Bobrovsky was f****** amazing. Oops, sorry. I’m sorry. He was freaking amazing. I apologize to y’all kids at home.” pic.twitter.com/WzJaeitKrR

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) June 11, 2024

Panthers vs Oilers Puckline Worth the Risk

Florida won the first two games by three goals. If you’re going to take Edmonton to get back in this best-of-seven series, it is worth considering a multi-goal win.

Five of Edmonton’s 12 wins have come by two goals or more, and three of its six home victories have been by multiple goals in the playoffs. That means the odds of a high-scoring, multi-goal win go up with the series heading back to Edmonton.

• The Panthers vs Oilers puckline odds are about +200. This means $2 profit-per-dollar wagered plus your stake back if Edmonton scores a multi-goal win.

The extra day off will mitigate some of the 2,500-plus-mile travel from each side and will give Barkov an extra day to potentially return. But even if Barkov plays, Knoblauch should be able to get his big guns away from Barkov based on the last change.

Plus, despite its 0-for-7 man advantage in the first two Cup Final games, Edmonton’s power play is firing at 38.5% on home ice. If Florida takes more than two minors in Game 3, expect Edmonton to cash in.

Prediction

• Barkov’s presumed absence should have a major effect on the series. Couple that with Edmonton’s desperation, and Game 3 could be a rout.
• Oilers 5, Panthers 2

For NHL picks, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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