NHL: Edmonton Suffocates Stars, Need One More!
Oilers Held Stars to 20 Shots While Tallying Two Power-Play Goals
The Edmonton Oilers (11-6, +15 goal differential) snatched game five from the Dallas Stars (10-8, +6), 3-1, on the back of two power-play goals from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points). If the Stars are to send this series to game seven they must hold down an Oilers special teams unit that has scored on 34.7% of their chances.
Game six shifts back to Rogers Place with Edmonton a -140 home favorite with a total of 5.5 (under -112). The game can be seen on TNT, truTV, and MAX. We start our Stars vs Oilers prediction preview with an analysis of the Stars.
Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars 
Day/Time:
Location: Rogers Place
Streaming: TNT, truTV, and MAX
Stars Shining Not So Bright Deep In The Heart Of Texas
The game six question is simple, for a team that owns a perceived depth advantage, how much more is left in the tank? That’s the decision bettors will make but we think there is an easier way to attack betting on this match-up. Once again, the Dallas Stars fail to win on home ice, falling to 4-5 (-2.19 units) at the American Airlines Center.
The good news is they’ll be back on the road where they’ve compiled a sensational 6-2 record (+3.74 units). We knew at some point that the Edmonton Oiler power play would play a role in the series and it did just that after a Ryan Suter roughing call at the 13:51 mark of the first period against Connor McDavid led to Edmonton’s first goal by Nugent-Hopkins 18 seconds later.
Whether McDavid sold the call or not is up for debate but for Suter to take that penalty was one of the first cracks of a lack of discipline the Stars have shown all series.
With that said, we thought the penalty was weak but you have to be better knowing that one of the top three NHL point leaders will always get the benefit of most calls. The public knows that six shots midway through a game five on home ice and getting out-chanced 34-24 is the bigger story for DeBoer.
Edmonton Hopes to Finish off Bumpy Ride
You had to know that the Edmonton Oilers were not going away after a 3-9-1 start to the 2023-24 season, but a change had to be made.
That change resulted in head coach Jay Woodcroft being fired after a three-year run that ended with a 79-41-13 record and two losses in the postseason.
Kris Knoblauch didn’t have National Hockey coaching experience but maybe that’s what his team loaded with lethal weapons needed.
Woodcroft took over on November 13th of last year and the team responded immediately with two wins and hasn’t looked back.
Including the playoffs, Edmonton is 55-29 (.655) with Knoblach, producing just 2.84 units of profit but good enough to be the fifth most profitable team in that time.
The Oilers have only been an underdog ten times (5-5, +0.15 units) under Knoblauch in 85 games. We talked about how the Oilers needed to put in a 60-minute effort and that’s what we saw in game five after trading off good and bad periods for most of the series.
To do it on the road was more impressive considering the Stars had the luxury of the last change giving them the match-ups that DeBoer would prefer. In an arena that isn’t loud, to begin with, the Oilers took the life out of the Stars and what little noise the nervous crowd could muster early.
The Oilers’ stats didn’t show a massive difference in total hits (26-20) in game four (43-21) but it was obvious that the Edmonton physicality played a role in game five. Let’s finish off our Stars vs Oilers prediction with our official wager.
The Total Gives Best Chance
It’s not something we can ignore anymore. Both teams are struggling to get shots on net and both goaltenders have been terrific when asked to make big saves. The juice will likely trickle down to the under before puck drop, meaning we should
jump on this number (-110) right now. Early betting shows 58% of the money and 66% of the tickets on the over. Sometimes you have to be smart because these percentages are not an indication of big money, or the books are happy to keep it -110 each way after throwing their opinion in the mix.
The NHL schedule has the Stars going back to a comfortable role as road dogs but with both teams’ offensive chances erased for periods at a time, this has been an under series even if just three of the five games have gone under the total.
Our official selection is under 5.5. That does it for our Stars vs Oilers prediction, all the best to you and your wagers this weekend.
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