Oilers vs Panthers Game 5 Odds: Florida Eyes First Cup Celebration
Panthers Can Clinch Championship on Home Ice; Edmonton Hopes to Force Game 6 Friday Night
The Florida Panthers can once again clinch their first Stanley Cup championship, this time on home ice, against the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final on Tuesday.
Edmonton cheated death for at least one more game by stomping Florida 8-1 on Saturday night at Rogers Place. Connor McDavid scored his first goal of the series as part of a four-point night, and the Oilers scored five goals on 16 shots against goalie Sergei Bobrovsky before he was pulled in the second period.
Despite Edmonton’s dominant Game 4, Florida still leads the best-of-7 series 3-1 and is a clear favorite to win the Stanley Cup on Tuesday night. The Panthers are about a -135 moneyline favorite in Game 4, which comes with an implied probability of about 57%.
The Oilers have dropped three of four on the road but will hope to take the series back to Canada for a Game 6 on Friday night. Here’s a look at the Oilers vs Panthers Game 5 odds.
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers 
Day/Time:
Location: Amerant Bank Arena
Streaming: ABC, ESPN+
Game 4 Recap
The Oilers were dominant from the opening faceoff, building a 3-1 first-period advantage before chasing Bobrovsky with a three-goal second. Dylan Holloway scored twice and now shares the lead for Cup Final goals by members of the Edmonton Oilers roster.
Despite Holloway’s big night, achieved by playing on right wing with star center Leon Draisaitl, it was also a breakout performance from the Oilers stars. Draisaitl and Zach Hyman each posted two assists, for their first points of the series, and McDavid had three assists and set a new record for assists in a single playoffs, passing Wayne Gretzky.
Vladimir Tarasenko had Florida’s lone goal. Star defenseman Aaron Ekblad was -4, and forwards Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe were each -3.
Oilers’ Uphill Climb
Despite Edmonton’s blowout win, it is still facing an extremely tall order. The Panthers still have -1200 or so Stanley Cup odds, and Edmonton’s are in about the +650 range.
Teams that trailed 3-0 are 1-27 all-time in the Stanley Cup Final since it went to a best-of-7 series in 1939. But clubs that trail 3-1 are just 1-37 all-time in Cup Final series history, with the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs serving as the only club to successfully claim the Cup in both scenarios.
Edmonton is 0-5 when trailing 3-0 and just 2-6 in series where they trail 3-1 — and 1-5 after starting the series on the road. The Oilers did force a Game 7 in the Cup Final after trailing 3-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2006 Cup Final but fell 3-1 in Game 7 that year.
The Panthers have won four straight games in Sunrise and are 3-1 in the Cup Final over the past two playoff seasons. Bobrovsky has a .921 save%,1.90 goals-against average and 4.82 goals-saved above average on home ice in 11 playoff starts, helping Florida to an 8-3 record in Sunrise in the postseason.
Those metrics may be why about 66% of all Game 5 bettors are siding with Florida.
Still, teams that have had the chance to clinch the Cup on home ice are 1-4 since 2016, which is why the Oilers vs Panthers Game 5 odds don’t exactly favor Florida.
Conn Smythe Watch
Bobrovsky is still the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, but getting pulled in Game 4 pulled him far closer to the field.
Bobrovsky, whose odds of winning the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs were about -400 ahead of Game 4, is even with Florida captain Aleksander Barkov at +105 at DraftKings as of Sunday night. The Florida goalie still has minus-money odds at the other prevalent, legal North American sportsbooks but is about -115 to win the award at those books.
Barkov was the co-favorite with Bobrovsky before the series started and leads Florida with 21 points and four game-winning goals. He is second among Florida forwards in average ice time in the playoffs despite missing the final 9:28 of Cup Final Game 2 with an upper-body injury.
However, McDavid’s huge Game 4 catapulted his candidacy back into the conversation, since five times a player that lost in the Cup Final has won the Conn Smythe Trophy — most recently Jean-Sebastien Giguere for the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim in 2003 after Anaheim lost to the New Jersey Devils in seven games.
Of the five losing players to claim the Conn Smythe, only one was a skater, Reggie Leach of the Philadelphia Flyers who won the MVP in 1976 despite being swept by the Montreal Canadiens.
But the fact McDavid set a new single-playoff record for assists — breaking Gretzky’s 36-year-old record — and is within nine points of The Great One’s 47 points, which is No. 1 among NHL stat leaders all-time, could continue to boost his candidacy among voters. McDavid’s odds were about +1600 before Game 4 but have dipped into the +600 territory.
Bobrovsky would be best served having a bounceback Game 5 or risk losing the award to Barkov. But if McDavid and the Oilers can force a Game 6, the Edmonton captain will probably become the favorite.
Take the Puck Line
Three of the four games in this series have been decided by at least three goals, and while we wouldn’t recommend taking Florida to cover -2.5, a -1.5 bet would be worth heavy consideration, especially at the puck line’s current odds.
The Oilers vs Panthers Game 5 odds for Florida -1.5 are about +185, which means $1.85 profit-per-dollar wagered. Those are astronomically high odds for a wager that seems highly plausible, especially if Florida is ahead after two periods.
The Florida Panthers have done an exceptional job of closing games. Despite their 1-2 record against the puck line in closeout games, the puck line is often worth sprinkling a small amount on in potential closeout games since coaches are desperate with their seasons on the line.
That means Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch may pull his goalie Stuart Skinner with three minutes left if they are down by only a goal. It may mean pulling the goalie with five minutes remaining if Edmonton is down by two or more.
Puck-line bettors would be 6-3 in the past nine Cup clinchers, including the Vegas Golden Knights’ 9-3 win over the Panthers in Game 5 of last year’s Cup Final on home ice.
Prediction
The Cup will come out of the box, and Cup keeper Phillip Pritchard will get his requisite airtime Tuesday night.
Panthers 4, Oilers 1
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