Panthers vs Oilers Game 6 Closing Odds: Bettors Favor Game 7
Oilers Favored to Force All Or Nothing Monday in Sunrise; Over Considered Likely Per Bettors
The Panthers may be one win from hoisting the Stanley Cup, but bettors are buying into the Edmonton Oilers’ chances to force a Game 7.
Edmonton is a modest -120 favorite in what will be its final home game of the 2023-24 NHL season, which carries a 54.5% implied probability. The Oilers have won consecutive games, including their 5-3 win that forced the hockey world to travel across North America for a Game 6 at Rogers Place.
The Panthers are 7-3 on the road in these playoffs and defeated the Oilers 4-3 in Game 3 that gave them a 3-0 advantage in the Cup Final. Florida clinched its second-round series against the Boston Bruins on the road after failing to ice that series at home too.
Even though the math and history still favor Florida, bettors are backing the Oilers. Here’s a look at the Panthers vs Oilers Game 6 closing odds as Friday night’s game draws near.
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers 
Day/Time:
Location: Rogers Place
Streaming: ABC, ESPN+
Bettors Back Edmonton
The NHL betting odds have actually moved in Florida’s favor, but the Oilers are considered an overwhelming favorite according to moneyline bettors.
Despite the 54-plus% implied probability, 67% of all moneyline bettors are backing the Oilers to win and force a do-or-die Game 7.
Only one team has ever turned around a 3-0 deficit to win the Cup, and only two of 28 teams have rebounded from 3-0 to even force a winner-take-all game in the Cup Final. Just four of 210 previous teams that trailed 3-0 have rallied to win a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, with the most recent being the 2014 Los Angeles Kings against the San Jose Sharks.
Of the four teams to rally from down 3-0, two (2014 Kings, 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs) have ultimately gone on to win the Cup
Edmonton Oilers opened as about a -122 favorite to win Game 6, but those Panthers vs Oilers Game 6 closing odds have shrunk to -120 or even shorter like -118 at DraftKings Sportsbook or -115 at Caesars as of Friday morning.
The best value for Panthers bettors is at BetMGM or FanDuel, who each have Florida as an Even-money underdog in the hours ahead of Game 6.
Over, Over, Over
It took a few games for the teams to settle in offensively, but they are in full swing now.
The Over has hit in each of the past three games as a consequence of the Oilers finally solving Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky, who stopped 78 of the first 80 shots faced over the first eight periods, has looked mortal again by allowing 11 goals on 45 shots since.
Thus, the Over is 3-0 in the past three games. Not only has the Over hit, but there has been at least seven goals in each game — far exceeding the consistent number of 5.5 listed in the postseason.
The Over/Under opened again at -105 odds but quickly swelled to about -110 as a whopping 76% of all totals bettors have wagered the Over in Game 6. The Over has even moved to -115 at BetMGM and -112 at DraftKings, giving the implied probability of at least six goals 53.5%.
Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner has been much better the past two games, enabling the Oilers to win Games 4 and 5. But he’s allowed at least one goal in 17 straight games, which means he and the porous Oilers defense aren’t likely to hold down the Panthers offense very long.
The best place to bet the Over is FanDuel, which has the O/U Panthers vs Oilers Game 6 closing odds set at -106 as of Friday morning.
Puck Line?
Puck line bettors are 3-2 over the first five games, which would net a huge profit since puck-line odds have been about +200 every game in the series.
The +200 odds would actually be short for Game 6 though, since an Edmonton win of at least two goals is fetching Panthers vs Oilers Game 6 closing odds of +210 or longer, since they’re +215 at Caesars and FanDuel.
Four of the five games have been decided by at least two goals, including each of Edmonton’s past two wins which have come by nine goals combined. The Panthers even built a 4-1 advantage in Game 3 before Edmonton rallied but fell short in the one-goal outcome that gave Florida a 3-0 series lead.
Six of the past nine Cup-clinching games have been settled by two-plus goals. So if you think Florida will win the Cup on Friday night, sprinkling a small amount on the reverse puck line — +250 at FanDuel — is a fun wager to consider.
Seven of Edmonton’s 14 wins have come by at least two goals, so betting the Oilers to cover the puck line is a worthy endeavor if you think they’ll force a Game 7. Or, if you’re looking for a leg for a Game 6 NHL picks and parlays, betting Edmonton to cover +1.5 at -340 a FanDuel is a good one.
OT?
Those looking for a prop to target could consider the game to get to overtime, since there hasn’t yet been an OT game in the series and those odds are typically long.
Betting Game 6 to get to overtime is going off at about +300 at most sportsbooks. The Cup has been clinched in overtime 15 times since the series went to a best-of-7 format in 1939, but it has not been decided in overtime since the 2014 Kings defeated the New York Rangers on Alec Martinez’s Game 5 double-overtime goal.
Conn Smythe Watch
Bobrovsky crashing back to earth opened the door for Oilers captain Connor McDavid to become the Conn Smythe favorite.
McDavid is having a playoffs for the ages by setting the single-postseason record for assists and becoming just the third player to post 40-plus points in a single playoff year.
Thus, McDavid’s MVP odds, which were about +1600 as recently as before Game 4, are now in the -350 range. The only competition the Oilers captain has is from Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov, who is the other player with odds shorter than +1000.
Still, Barkov hasn’t played well and is likely one of the many Panthers injuries, since he left Game 2 with an upper-body injury.
Given the precedent of losing players winning playoff MVP — it’s happened five times, including when Reggie Leach won the MVP award after the Philadelphia Flyers were swept by the Montreal Canadiens in the 1976 Cup Final, the only other losing skater to earn the award — and lack of a bona fide Panthers options, McDavid is going to win the MVP.
Prediction
The betting activity may favor the Oilers, but the Panthers are likely to win the Cup in Edmonton on Friday night.
Panthers 4, Oilers 3
For NHL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
