2024 Post-Debate Presidential Election Update
Biden Reeling, Trump Surging
Here is an updated look at the post-debate Presidential election odds.
Joe Biden’s disastrous performance at the first debate last week has sent betting markets into uncharted territory.
Donald Trump is now a heavy favorite to win a second presidential term and become the second split-term President — with Grover Cleveland serving as the other in the 19th century.
Despite announcing his intent to remain in the race Wednesday, and the fact he is the incumbent, Biden is no longer the favorite to even claim the Democratic nomination mere weeks before the Democratic National Convention.
Trump heavily favored
Despite spewing undeniable falsehoods and effectively promising a further denigration of U.S. political norms, Trump is a massive favorite to win his second term mere weeks ahead of the Republican National Convention.
- Trump is a -170 favorite to win the election, which carries about a 60% implied probability.
Trump showed remarkable discipline at the first debate, far more so than any of his performances over his previous two presidential campaigns. Trump let his opponent speak and did not cut him off in a break from his 2020 debate performances against Biden and 2016 debates vs Hillary Clinton.
If you follow U.S. news, you know whispers about Biden’s cognitive function have gotten louder. They will continue to due to the heavy volume of people who watched his listless performance at the debate in Atlanta.
The 81-year-old now has the third-shortest odds to win the presidency at +550, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading the odds to win from the Democratic side at +450.
- Five candidates, including Trump and Biden, have shorter odds than high-profile third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s +5000. Michelle Obama, the 44th First Lady, and California governor Gavin Newsom trail Trump, Biden and Harris at +1800, and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer sits fifth at +2800.
Democratic Candidate Odds
- Trump is a -2500 favorite to carry the Republican nomination in the 2024 election odds, despite his conviction on 34 felony charges last month. He’s almost guaranteed to not face any further legal challenges though due to the Supreme Court’s recent immunity ruling.
- But despite Biden’s win and four-year service as president, the Democratic nomination is in flux. Biden has post-debate Presidential election updated odds of –130 to announce he is withdrawing from the race in July with “no” serving as the underdog with -110 odds.
- Biden still has the shortest odds but is only a +110 favorite to accept the nomination at the convention, which will be held in Chicago from Aug. 19-22. But Harris, who has served as Biden’s VP the past four years, is only a narrow underdog with +120 odds.
- Though Biden and Harris are effectively the co-favorites, there are other potential options for the DNC. Newsom and Obama share the third-shortest odds to carry the Democratic nomination at +1100, and Whitmer follows at +1600.
- Hillary Clinton, the 2016 nominee who won the popular vote but fell to Trump in that year’s election, has +3300 odds to represent the DNC. All other candidates currently have odds longer than +6000.
Hypothetical Head-to-heads
Trump may be a massive favorite over Biden and Harris. But the odds hardly favor Trump if Democrats shifted away from the incumbents.
In post-debate Presidential election updated odds, Trump is a -300 favorite, which carries a 75% implied probability, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against Biden.
Biden has +200 odds in that potential matchup despite the fact he won both the popular vote and Electoral College just four years ago — U.S. election results that Trump and his legion of supporters continue to challenge.
- Harris is also an underdog in the hypothetical matchups though a slightly shorter one. Trump leads her in a hypothetical presidential matchup, carrying -225 odds and about 69% implied probability, against Harris’ +160 odds.
- Trump’s odds dwindle substantially though as the field expands. Trump is only a slight -140 favorite against Whitmer, a -130 favorite against Newsom, and would be a bona fide underdog in a hypothetical race against Obama.
- Michelle Obama is a -180 favorite in a hypothetical against Trump, which carries a 64.3% implied probability. The three-time Republican presidential candidate is a +140 underdog against Obama.
- For those wondering, Trump would also be a favorite against Clinton if they were to square off again, though her odds are far shorter than Biden’s. Clinton is a +135 underdog, with Trump carrying -175 odds in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
Swing State Props
The 2020 election came down to Georgia and Arizona, which Biden won, but those odds strongly favor Trump in 2024.
- In fact, the Republican candidate, which Trump is heavily favored to be, is the favorite to win in each of the six main swing states. The GOP is a -600 favorite to carry Georgia and a -225 favorite to carry Nevada and Arizona, despite the fact Biden narrowly won each state four years ago.
- Trump is also favored to carry Wisconsin with -150 odds and is a slight favorite of -130 to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump won all three states against Clinton in 2016, but Biden claimed them all in 2020.
For Political betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
