Pantoja Defends Strap Against Relative Newcomer

The Pantoja vs Erceg UFC odds are out and currently, Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja is a -192 favorite over his opponent Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg. Erceg’s UFC odds are listed as +160 to upset the Brazilian in his home country. The over/under rounds line is set at 3.5 (-145 on the over and +114 on the under).

For the headliner for UFC 301, this may feel like a lackluster matchup. This fight is not what all UFC fans were expecting for the UFC Flyweight Championship, as Steve Erceg is relatively new. Erceg has only three UFC wins, and although had lots of success pre-UFC, is still early in his UFC career to be getting a title shot against the likes of Alexandre Pantoja.

Alexandre Pantoja on the other hand is a seasoned veteran. He has already defended his UFC Flyweight title once before and now fights in his home country of Brazil, heavily favored to defend his title once again.

We are going to look at these fighters’ last UFC fights, current Pantoja vs Erceg UFC odds, and all other relevant information to make some bets on the UFC this weekend.

Vai Brasil

Pantoja is one of the UFC’s top fighters at the moment. Having already defended his flyweight title once, he is expected to continue his reign after Saturday’s fight. Pantoja’s current career record is 27-5-0. He is currently on a five-fight win streak.

The champ is a well-rounded fighter with diverse ways of hurting opponents. He has incredible footwork, which allows him to control a fight’s pace. But his quick striking and advanced jiu-jitsu makes him a threat both standing and on the mat.

Pantoja’s well-rounded fighting is a testament to just how dynamic his skillset is. He is striking at a 49.4% accuracy (seven percent above the average for UFC fighters) and achieving a takedown accuracy of 48.1%, over three percent higher than the UFC average.

This makes betting on the exact outcome of Pantoja’s potential win a bit more difficult. He has won five fights in a row, winning two by unanimous decision, one by split decision, and two by submission. Oddsmakers have Pantoja winning by submission at +240, by decision at +300, and by TKO/KO at +460. Oddsmakers have Erceg winning by TKO/KO (+360) as more likely than Pantoja by that method.

If you believe in Pantoja’s ability to defend his title, betting on the submission or decision odds for his win seems like a good bet. He only has eight career TKOs/KOs and hasn’t had one since 2019. Both of Pantoja’s recent title belt wins came by decision.

Up and Comer Aussie

Astroboy is an up-and-comer Australian getting his first shot at a UFC title. The flyweight division is a little light on strong competition, so Erceg is getting his shot earlier than expected. Erceg’s career record is 12-1-0, with two TKO/KOs and six submissions.

He is on a ten-fight winning streak but has only had three UFC fights. Two of the three of those wins came as unanimous decisions.

Due to his inexperience, Steve Erceg is coming into this fight as a strong underdog. He made his statement win with his second-round knockout over Matt Schnell in March. The 28-year-old has put up impressive statistics so far in his fighting career.

Standing up, Erceg is landing 4.57 strikes per minute (the current UFC average is 2.5) and is preventing takedowns at a 77.8% success rate. This is imperative in avoiding Pantoja’s ability to showcase his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills in Rio on Saturday.

Erceg is currently +360 to win by KO/TKO, +550 to win by decision, and a long +1300 to win by submission.

Best Bet for Saturday

Pantoja vs Erceg UFC odds are currently Pantoja, the -192 favorite over his opponent Erceg ( +160 to win). The odds for a draw are +5000. The odds for the total rounds are 3.5.

We expect Pantoja to defend his title once again come Saturday. With his home country behind him, it is hard not to bet on the veteran fighter.

For UFC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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